Don't move around tonight! 11 PM is the real killing point, the harvesting has just begun
Tonight at 11 PM, the true killing point of this options expiry market is still to come.
The Put/Call ratio for BTC is 1.0, indicating a balanced long and short position, with large funds still in contention.
The Put/Call ratio for ETH is only 0.69, suggesting that everyone is quite optimistic.
The biggest pain point lies below the current price of Bitcoin—what does that mean? The main players want to harvest there.
The total options scale exceeds 400 million USD, and post-expiry, liquidity will be released, the real volatility is just beginning.
Now looking at the sentiment:
Today's PCE data is slightly bearish, and the market has already started to sell off in advance; the market sentiment is not healthy.
So tonight, it is likely to move like this:
Around 11 PM, there will be a sell-off to hit the maximum pain point, cutting both longs and shorts.
After the expiry concludes, if sentiment eases, there might be a rebound.
If there are no buyers, and liquidity remains poor, then the downtrend will continue.
What should one do?
Do not move before expiry, and look for direction to take a position after expiry.
Don’t fantasize about bottom fishing in advance; those who bottom-fish before 11 PM tonight are likely playing with fire.
All movements before expiry are feints; the real market will only begin after expiry.
Don’t rush; wait until that big bearish candle closes before deciding.
