Will there be significant fluctuations in the crypto market tonight? It all depends on the PCE data!
📊 Market expectations:
PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3%, core PCE is expected to be 2.8%—if it meets expectations, it won’t have much impact on cryptocurrency prices. Only if it exceeds expectations will it be bearish, and if it is lower than expected, it will be bullish.
🔍 The hidden clues behind the data:
Tariffs theoretically push up inflation, but recently both CPI and PCE have often been below expectations, even Powell has complained about the quality of government data, so this time it might meet or be below expectations.
⚠️ The real storm is on July 8th!
On that day, tariffs will be temporarily postponed, and Trump will announce the final tax rate. If the tax rate is very high, U.S. stocks may correct after realizing the benefits, and the crypto market will likely follow suit and drop. But if the tax rate is moderate, the market may continue to thrive.
Tonight’s PCE data is likely to be non-impactful. The real market situation will wait for the tariffs to be implemented on July 8th! Before that, the market may continue to oscillate.
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