Will the cryptocurrency market explode tonight? PCE data will be released tonight, let’s see how it affects the price of cryptocurrencies
PCE inflation data will be released tonight. The market now expects PCE to rise to 2.3% and core PCE to rise to 2.8%, which looks like bad news.
But in fact, this is what everyone thought of in advance: if the data just reaches this number, it is in line with expectations and has little impact on the currency price; if it exceeds this number, it will be considered as unexpected negative news, and if it is lower than this number, it will be considered as positive news.
Everyone knows that it will increase inflation, but have you noticed?
Every time CPI and PCE are lower than expected, it is hard to say whether there is any optimization of data. Lao Bao has said before that government data is inaccurate, and those who understand what he means know what he means. So I guess this time the data may just meet expectations, or directly be lower than expectations, and it is optimized.
The real variable is on July 8th: the tax will be collected after the moratorium expires, and Chuanzi will also have to announce how much it will collect. By then, the US stock market may start to fall after all the good news has been exhausted, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to follow suit. Don't worry now, let the news fly for a while and see.
Now let's look at the MACD indicator of the Bitcoin daily chart. Now there is an obvious top divergence: the price hit a new high, but the momentum of MACD has weakened. This is a signal that the big cycle is going to weaken, indicating that the bulls are not strong enough to rush upwards, and may need to adjust.
Have you looked at the previous example?
In January this year, the price of the currency broke through the previous high, but the momentum of MACD was going down, and it soon began to fall back;
This was even more obvious in March last year, when the coin price formed multiple top patterns, but MACD simply could not keep up. Later, it fell all the way from 73,000 to 49,000, and fluctuated downward for a long time.
You can see that in the past two months, the price of Bitcoin has been stuck at around 100,000, but the MACD indicator has been falling, indicating that the upward momentum has long been insufficient. If the group of people who speculated in US stocks before had not been buying ETFs to support it, the price would have fallen long ago.
I am now waiting for a false breakout in Bitcoin, and then I will short it. Previously, Bitcoin falsely fell below 90,000 and then soared, and after breaking through the previous high, it falsely broke through again, and then began to collapse, which is similar to this situation.
My personal judgment is that the cryptocurrency market will fall in July and August, hitting a low point. When the Fed cuts interest rates in late September, the bull market will restart. If ETFs are approved in October, all cryptocurrencies will probably soar. The market will be crazy by then, and we must leave the market before then.
Just like this bull market, we sold Pepe and Sol in mid-May, and shorted Trump, ZK, ZRO and other weak coins in the past month. If you are interested, you can follow Xianxian’s official account and join the Xianxian community.
Let's talk about today's hot topics
$SAHARA fell as soon as it went online! 50 million selling pressure hit the market, don’t follow the trend and chase high prices
$SAHARA, which was newly launched yesterday, looked very powerful and was listed on all major exchanges. However, the price fell before the heat even died down because the selling pressure was too great.
First, Binance ALPHA released 74.9 million coins, which is almost $10 million at the launch price.
Secondly, when Buidlpad was publicly funded, the project was valued at 600 million but only raised 8.5 million. The cost to the buyers was extremely low. Now the floating profit is more than 2 times, and it is estimated that 20 million US dollars must have been spent.
Adding the 1.4% of the circulating coins retained by the project party, there is another $20 million in selling pressure.
There were nearly 50 million USD of selling orders at the beginning. Even if it is listed on so many exchanges, it cannot digest so much selling pressure in the short term. Looking at the trend of the contract market, the project owner may still be shorting for hedging (guessing). The market liquidity is already tight, and the project owner has no intention of pulling the price in the short term. Don't follow the trend and buy at a high price.
BUNKER is launched on the chain, and the speed of passing 10X in 2 hours is all due to a sentence from the founder of Solana
This coin originated from the "Manhattan Project" proposed by Solana founder Toly in 2021, focusing on encrypted communication and anti-censorship. Three days ago, Toly tweeted that the price of the coin took off after the project party recommended itself, but after reading the code, he said that "it was not done seriously". This wave of negative news (FUD) caused the price of the coin to rise first and then fall. Three minutes later, the market came to its senses and crashed.
Another person who left a comment under this discussion was @Deanmlittle, the developer of Bunker, who retweeted his own PR on GitHub (which simply means "I changed the project code, please merge it into the main program").
Dean was talking crazy. Looking at the follow list, Toly and the black guy were following him. Toly replied "Done", and the market value of the coin rose from hundreds of thousands to nearly 2 million. A little later, Toly retweeted that he became a core developer of Bunkercoin, and the price of the coin rose 10 times in two hours. The big green stick came down...
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