When the US stock market is partying hard, our altcoins are still lingering at the ICU door! Brothers, don’t you feel like your social media is flooded with 'crypto concept stocks' lately? Watching them rise while looking at the coins in your hand, it’s a mix of emotions!
Hey, seriously, the US and Hong Kong markets are hyping 'crypto concepts' so much, things like MicroStrategy and Coinbase are rising faster than my wallet shrinks! But I don’t touch US or Hong Kong stocks, just watching the excitement, so today let's chat about our old profession— the crypto market itself.
Recently, Bitcoin hasn't been moving, and altcoins are looking lifeless again, coupled with the excitement next door, many people are singing the blues: 'The crypto market is cold! The profit period is over! There's nothing to gain!' Hearing that makes me want to roll my eyes.
Our crypto market also goes through 'adolescence', okay? I’ve pondered a saying: industry growth is like growing up:
Tech Enthusiast Phase (08-12 years): Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, the term blockchain just emerged, pure technical exploration, super cool but far from money.
Product Manager Phase (13-17 years): Various coins emerged, ETH came in with smart contracts! Everyone competed on whose ‘product’ had better features.
Blowhard Phase (17-21 years): ICOs, DeFi, NFTs... Concepts flying everywhere, bull market soaring! To put it plainly, it's all about who can shout louder and market better, users flocking in.
Competition Phase (22 years - present): Exchanges compete on transaction fees, public chains compete on gas fees, project teams compete on user numbers... Everything revolves around 'money', how to save money and attract people.
Bated Breath Phase (Future): Waiting for the big players to finish their land-grabbing, and the rules to be somewhat set, feeling there's no novelty? At this point, true innovation must break the deadlock!
No matter what phase it’s in now, I can confidently say: opportunities are always there! It’s just the difference between big gains and small gains, depending on whether you can catch them. Others’ pessimism is their business; I, along with my believing friends, will root ourselves here, remain optimistic in the long run, and stick it out!
Why is the market so sluggish now? The three ‘pot kings’:
The Middle East is fighting again: Black swan, brothers! In June, we were expecting Bitcoin to hit new highs, but it got scared off by the gunfire. However, in my view, the Americans are holding back, and a full-scale war won’t break out; in the end, it will still be 'sit down and talk'. As long as this can calm down, Bitcoin still has a chance! Just afraid something else will go wrong... Geopolitics, specializes in treating all kinds of discontent!
Fed's Powell turns from 'dove' to 'hawk'?: Old Powell made a statement a few days ago, interest rate cut? Let’s talk in September! July? Suspicious! The market now bets on a nearly 70% chance of a rate cut in September. A rate cut is definitely good for us, but don’t think a rate cut equals an immediate surge! The market is tricky. The good news is: that rate cut will eventually come! Just waiting for it to act as a catalyst.
Trump is at it again!: This guy is truly a 'uncertainty machine'! One minute he’s shouting for the Fed to cut rates quickly, the next he’s issuing coins within his family to fleece retail investors, while promoting 'Bitcoin as national reserve'... One shout from him, and the global market shakes! Do you comply?
Aside from these three, there are countless factors influencing the market! Predicting short-term? It's as hard as climbing to the sky! What we retail investors can do is manage our positions well and find opportunities we can understand amidst the big countries' games, policy swings, and chaotic expectations!
Is there still an altcoin season? My opinion has never changed: that traditional 'altcoin season' where all altcoins soar together is most likely a final act! But! 'Mini altcoin seasons' will occasionally pop up to surprise you!
Why? Money is always the smartest! No 'faith', only 'interests'! Right now, institutional money primarily flows into Bitcoin. BUT! Once Bitcoin hits a certain high, and its cost-effectiveness declines, where do you think this hot money will go? That's right! It will likely flow to altcoins that have ETF expectations and listing possibilities, or related concept sectors!
Want to strike gold in altcoins? Listen to me:
First weigh whether you can bear the risk!
Keep an eye on two key indicators: BTC.D + market sentiment! These can help you judge when it’s a good time to enter on the 'right side'.
Don’t be a 'hotspot chaser'! Seeing that the stablecoin concept in the US stock market has skyrocketed, are you just now rushing in? Preparing to be the bag holder! Think: after this wave of hot money ends in the stock market, will it flow back to the crypto market to speculate on related concepts? For example, DeFi or RWA projects related to stablecoins?
Core Principle: Rather than chasing the hot spots and running yourself ragged, it's better to deeply cultivate 1-2 small areas that you truly understand and are truly optimistic about! Combining candlestick patterns, policy trends, and on-chain capital flows for research will help you discover treasure opportunities more effectively!
Expectations are one thing, risk control is king! This is why I always emphasize position management! Even if I think Bitcoin can reach 300,000 in 5 years, I wouldn't go ALL IN! I still follow the plan to accumulate in batches. Remember three kinds of investment mindsets:
Retail Investor Mindset: The greed of others makes me greedier!
Expert Mindset: Others are greedy, I am fearful! If we retail investors can do this, we can outperform 90% of people!
Godmindset: The greed of others makes me greedier!
So, where do you think the next wave of 'mini altcoin season' will hide among the crypto sectors drained by US stocks? Follow me, next time we'll dig deep into these 3 potential directions! Don't wait until it skyrockets to regret!