1. Technical analysis: Oversold rebound and key resistance game

  1. K-line pattern and the relationship between volume and price

    • The 4-hour K-line shows a "bullish engulfing" pattern today, but the price is still down compared to the same period yesterday. The increase in trading volume is accompanied by a downward trend in prices, indicating that selling pressure has increased and there is short-term selling pressure.

    • Daily level: SOL is currently quoted at $147.61, down 1.4% in 24 hours and 10% in two weeks, in a range of shock convergence. If it stands firm at the resistance of $148-149, it may trigger a double bottom rebound, with the target at $155-160; on the contrary, if it falls below the support of $142, it may drop to the key level of $139.

  2. Technical indicator signals divergence

    • MACD: The negative value of the histogram is shortening, indicating that the short-selling momentum is weakening, but the overall trend is still unclear and needs to be confirmed by a breakthrough.

    • KDJ: The indicator value 17 enters the oversold zone. There is a rebound demand in the short term, but a golden cross has not yet been formed.

    • Moving average system: MA10＞MA30, but the price is lower than the 20-day moving average. If it breaks through, it may activate the "golden cross" expectations.

  3. Key points and wave structure

    • Support levels: $140, $139.

    • Resistance level: $145 (tested multiple times today), $150 (former support turned into resistance), target after breakthrough is $160-165.

    • The wave theory shows that we are currently in the (4th) adjustment wave. Holding $139 will start the (5th) driving wave, with a target of $270-320.

Key PositionsPrice Range (USD)ImportanceSupport 140.0 - 142.0Bull psychological defense line, a break below may trigger a sell-offStrong Support 139.0Elliott Wave key node, a break below will negate the bull market structureResistance 147.0 - 149.0Multiple tests today, a break above may start a reboundStrong Resistance 160.0 - 165.0Technical pattern target, resonating with the moving average system

2. News impact: ETF benefits vs. market decline pressure

  1. Positive Catalyst

    • Solana ETF application progress: Invesco and Galaxy Digital jointly submitted the QSOL ETF application. If approved, it will open up the institutional funding channel and stimulate SOL's intraday increase of 9%.

    • Ecosystem destruction deflation: Jupiter destroyed 30% of tokens, and the staking APY soared to 18%, boosting the SOL ecosystem TVL to over US$1.5 billion.

  2. Negative factors

    • Market decline: The overall crypto market declined, and the SOL ecosystem sector fell 4.24% in 24 hours, dragged down by BTC falling below $107,000 and ETH falling below $2,400.

    • Upexi incident risk: Nasdaq-listed company Upexi plunged 60% due to additional stock issuance. It holds 679,000 SOLs, which has caused concerns about the assets of listed companies that pledge SOLs.

  3. Macro liquidity: More than $10 billion in BTC/ETH options expire tonight, with the biggest pain points at $102,000 and $2,500, respectively, which may exacerbate market volatility.

3. Comprehensive judgment and key observation points today

Short-term direction: Technical oversold rebound demand and positive ETF news provide support, but it needs to break through the resistance zone of $147-149 and stand firm, otherwise it may fall back to the range of $139-142.

Long and short game focus:

Long chips: institutional ETF layout, ecological deflation model, and AI-agent economic narrative.

Short positions: The general decline in market sentiment, the trust crisis in pledged assets caused by the Upexi incident, and the selling pressure caused by the German government's transfer of 345 BTC.

4. Operation suggestions for intraday trading: If it stabilizes at $144, try to buy with a light position, with a target of $150 and a stop loss of $138. If it falls below $142, wait and see the results of the support test at $139.

Mid- to long-term layout: USD 139 is an important watershed. If it holds, you can build positions in batches and bet on the fifth wave drive (target USD 270+). If it falls below, pay attention to the secondary support of USD 125.

Summary: SOL is in a game node between technical oversold rebound and news negative pressure today, and $144 is the watershed between long and short. If it can break through the resistance with the help of ETF positive volume, it will open up short-term rebound space; if the market's general decline spreads or Upexi risks ferment, it may test the strong support of $139 again.

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