Bitcoin (BTC) showed a strong recovery of around 7% after dropping to $98,200 this week. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at approximately $106,700 and is testing the critical $108,250 resistance point, just below the descending trend line that has pulled prices down since early June.

Market momentum is slowing, and the next 48 hours will be crucial in determining BTC's direction: Will prices rise and set new highs, or will they pull back to support levels? Technical indicators suggest a potential directional change in the short term. An ascending wedge pattern is notable on the two-hour chart. BTC has made a lower peak around $106,237, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. If the price falls below the 50-period EMA ($106,249), it could pull back to the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels, such as $104,991 and $103,984.

Important resistance levels: $108,250 and $110,000

Nearby supports: $106,250 and $104,900

RSI: 56, in the neutral zone

MACD: Weakening observed in bullish momentum

Investors may expect a clear break above $108,250 for long positions. In bearish strategies, a drop below $106,200 could be seen as a selling opportunity, with a target around $104,000.

Geopolitical Developments and Support from the Fed Revitalize Bitcoin Rally

The recent recovery in Bitcoin is largely due to macroeconomic factors. The ceasefire in the Middle East has alleviated concerns in global markets and increased risk appetite. This situation has led capital to redirect towards riskier assets.

BTC has broken an important technical barrier by regaining the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at the $106,000 level in the middle of the week. While buyers are showing strong support at this level, the price has begun to retest $107,000. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) softer stance on crypto in its statements has been positively received in the market. The expectation of reduced regulatory pressure has created a 'green light' effect among investors and supported Bitcoin's strength.

Institutional investor interest remains high. Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for 13 consecutive days; this week's total inflow reached $1.71 billion, the highest figure since May. Major investors Metaplanet and ProCap have purchased more than 7,500 BTC during this process. Although individual investors have not fully participated in this activity yet, institutional confidence appears to be strong.

Can Bitcoin Reach $112,000? Targets May Rise with Breakthrough of Critical Level

The Bitcoin price is currently stuck in the resistance band between $108,000 and $110,000, and this area poses a significant technical barrier. Analysts predict that if trading volume increases and a daily close occurs above $109,000, BTC could move towards $112,000 and higher levels.

In the long run, with the increase in demand for spot ETFs and favorable macro winds, targets of $120,000 and even $165,000 may come into play.

However, this bullish scenario is not guaranteed. If $108,250 is not exceeded, the risk of a pullback in the short term increases. Additionally, trading volume remains weak.

On-chain data also supports this situation: Bitcoin transfer volume has decreased by 32% in recent days, dropping to $52 billion, while spot market volume remains flat at around $7.7 billion.

If the price falls below $106,249, a correction could occur in the range of $104,000 - $105,000. This area could be a potential accumulation point for buyers.


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