Ceasefire news boosts Bitcoin's rebound, but analysts warn of the 'crash trigger'

After the ceasefire news between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $100,000 to $107,000 this week.

However, Sygnum's head of investment research, Katalin Tischhauser, issued a warning: 'Unless another black swan event of Terra or FTX level occurs, Bitcoin is unlikely to crash, but the double top pattern poses significant risks.'

This analyst pointed out that the cryptocurrency market is highly emotion-driven, and the technical double top signal should be heeded. Historical experience shows that sudden crises, like the FTX crash in 2022, trigger systemic collapses.

The current improvement in the political regulatory environment, combined with continuous institutional capital inflows, still supports a long-term bull market cycle, but short-term technical risks cannot be ignored.

Is the Bitcoin double top pattern forming? 75% pullback warning triggers market panic

Recently, BTC has been fluctuating in the $100,000 - $110,000 range, raising analysts' concerns about the 'double top' pattern.

Both Katalin Tischhauser and technical analysis master Peter Brandt pointed out that if BTC falls below the $75,000 support level, the double top pattern will be confirmed, potentially leading to a price drop from the peak to $27,000, a decline of 75%.

Peter Brandt's analysis earlier this month showed that the pattern peaks at $110,000, with a neck line support at $75,000. If the neck line is lost, the target based on technical patterns is exactly $27,000.

Although analysts emphasize that black swan events are still a necessary condition for a crash, this classic bearish pattern has put traders on high alert.

Today's cryptocurrency market falls: BTC dominance surges to 65%, making it the 'culprit'

CoinGecko data shows that the total cryptocurrency market cap has dropped 2.6% in the last 24 hours to $3.39 trillion, with most mainstream tokens weakening:

XRP plummets 4.2%, leading the top ten tokens by market cap

Solana drops 2.5%, and the overall ecosystem sector falls 4.24%

The memecoin sector falls 3.91%, with SPX6900 plummeting 10.21% in a single day

Three major driving factors behind the drop:

1. BTC dominance rises: Bitcoin's market cap percentage breaks 65%, with funds flowing from altcoins to mainstream assets

2. Technical overbought pullback: BTC faces strong resistance in the $108,000 - $110,000 range, with RSI and MACD showing momentum weakening

3. Macroeconomic events approaching: Investors remain cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated

Trader strategy: Double top neck line becomes the life and death line for bulls and bears

In the face of the current market landscape, traders are generally adopting defensive strategies:

Short term: Focus on the $75,000 support level; losing it will trigger stop-loss mechanisms

Mid-term: Black swan events remain the biggest risk; vigilance is required against sudden changes in regulatory policies

Allocation: Funds are concentrating on BTC/ETH, reducing exposure to highly volatile altcoins

Katalin Tischhauser emphasized: 'The bull market is not over, but investors need to distinguish between 'normal pullbacks' and 'trend reversals'—$75,000 will be a key defense line to test market resilience.'

Under the shadow of black swan events and technical risks, next week's BTC trend will determine the short-term fate of the entire cryptocurrency market.