Ethereum is in a critical process where investors carefully assess the likelihood of exceeding $3,000 or falling to $2,000 as the second-largest cryptocurrency.

Despite the recent updates in the network and the increase in institutional interest, market sentiment is divided; this increases uncertainties regarding Ethereum's short-term price direction.

According to Myriad prediction markets, the probability of ETH falling to $2,000 is 51%, while the probability of rising to $3,000 is at an almost equal level of 49%.

Currently, while the price of Ethereum fluctuates around $2,500, technical analyses and prediction markets indicate that ETH is at a critical juncture.

Ethereum Price Dynamics: Balancing Between $3,000 Resistance and $2,000 Support

In June, the price of Ethereum moved within a narrow band around $2,500. This has led investors to closely monitor the $3,000 resistance and the $2,000 support levels. Especially if it dips below $2,000, increased selling pressure is expected. This situation indicates that, despite the recent update Pectra increasing the validator capacity and data flow, a strong upward momentum has not yet been achieved in the overall market.

Diverging Views in Prediction Markets

The Myriad platform developed by Dastan, the parent company of COINOTAG, stands out as an important tool reflecting investors' expectations. The market titled 'Ethereum's next move: Will it rise to $3,000 or fall to $2,000?' draws attention with a trading volume exceeding $13,000. According to current data, the probability of falling to $2,000 is 51%, while the probability of rising to $3,000 is 49%. This nearly equal division highlights the differing views in the market and the balanced risk-reward perception of ETH investors. Generally, such balances are seen as a precursor to an impending price breakout; therefore, the coming weeks will be critical.

Technical Analysis: Signs of Consolidation Are Emerging

Charts show that Ethereum is currently on a cautious path. The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 22, remaining below the strong trend threshold of 25; this indicates a lack of significant price momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 49.7, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains above the 200-week EMA, giving a 'golden cross' signal, yet the narrowing distance between the two averages indicates a weakening bullish strength.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator indicates that volatility is decreasing, further supporting the continuation of consolidation in prices. Ethereum has struggled to break the $2,800 resistance since May; reaching $3,000 would require approximately 77 days of consistent upward movement, which seems difficult under current market conditions. On the other hand, if the bearish trend of the last few weeks continues, a drop to $2,000 could occur much more rapidly.

The Role of Institutional Interest and Network Updates

Ethereum attracts the interest of institutional investors as the only cryptocurrency traded with spot ETFs in the US markets. With a market capitalization of approximately $293 billion, it indicates high investor confidence. Network improvements like the Pectra update support Ethereum's long-term growth potential by increasing scalability and validator capacity. However, these developments have not yet clearly reflected in price movements; macroeconomic factors and overall market volatility keep investors cautious.

Critical Levels to Follow

Investors need to particularly pay attention to the $2,200 support level. If this level breaks, it is likely that downward momentum will accelerate towards $2,000. On the upside, surpassing the $2,800 resistance is essential for a sustainable rise towards $3,000. These critical levels stand out as psychological and technical thresholds that will be decisive in Ethereum's short-term price movements. In light of the current market sentiment and technical indicators, significant price volatility and trading opportunities may arise when one or both of these levels are broken.

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