On June 27, over $15 billion worth of Bitcoin Options will expire, marking a major milestone in the cryptocurrency market. The current market is seeing significant concentration of Open Interest around high gamma regions, especially at prices close to technical bottoms and tops.
The likelihood of a sharp market move after the expiration date depends largely on how Bitcoin reacts. A clear breakout in either direction could set the price trend for Q3.
Bitcoin's bullish trend based on options
Currently, BTC options open interest is positive, with 79,630 calls compared to 59,770 puts. The put/call ratio is 0.75, indicating that market sentiment is bullish, although still mixed.
Total open interest reached 139,400, representing one of the largest expirations in recent months. The pain point for the market is at $102,000, while the market price is currently about $5,500 higher, creating a short-term gamma position for market makers.
The impact of market makers and the possibility of gamma squeeze
Market makers respond by balancing their risk by buying futures contracts or directly buying BTC in the spot market, creating early buying pressure ahead of expiry. If prices continue to rise, this could lead to a gamma squeeze, which could accelerate the rally as makers need to buy to push prices even higher.
In a positive scenario, Bitcoin maintains a clear bullish structure, surpassing a key resistance level, which could lead to a breakout to $110,000 in less than a session.
Post-option expiration events and market trends
Impact of post-term trading flows
After the $15 billion options expire, hedging positions will be cleared, allowing investors to expand new positions. Currently, Bitcoin Options Open Interest has reached a record high of $51.1 billion, of which Deribit accounts for 80% of the flow.
The Put/Call ratio also dropped to 0.36 in the past 24 hours, indicating a clear wave of bullish bets. Many new call contracts were traded, helping the market prepare for a breakout trend in the coming Q3.
Market trends and the possibility of the next breakout
As old positions are unwound, there may be short-term volatility, such as stop-loss selling or profit-taking. However, the increase in new long positions helps absorb liquidity, reducing the possibility of a deep decline and opening the door for Bitcoin to break out even more strongly.
With this positive effect, analysts expect that Bitcoin will maintain its upward momentum, aiming to surpass $110,000 in the next quarter, facilitating the continuation of the bullish trend in the long term.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/15-ty-usd-bitcoin-option-het-han-hom-nay/
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