I. Data Expectations and Core Focus Points

1. Overall Trend

Core PCE MoM: Market expects an increase of 0.1% (unchanged from the previous value), Citigroup predicts a more precise 0.14%.

Core PCE YoY: Expected to rise to 2.6% (up from 2.5% in April), **Overall PCE YoY** expected to rise to 2.3% (previous value 2.1%).

Other Data: Personal spending is expected to increase by 0.2% MoM (unchanged from previous value), personal income growth may slow to 0.3% MoM (previous value 0.8%).

2. Dynamics of Sub-sectors

Housing Inflation: Zillow data shows significant slowdown in single-family home rents, which may drag down service sector inflation.

Used Car Prices: Manheim wholesale price index rebounded 1.7% in June, but volatility is high, which may transmit to the consumer end.

Tariff Impact: Currently, it has not significantly raised prices, but caution is needed for future import cost transmission.

II. Current Macroeconomic Background and Policy Logic

Stagflation Risk Emerging: The final value of U.S. Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5%, with consumer spending only increasing by 0.5% (the lowest since 2020), but core PCE inflation was revised up to 3.5%, reflecting both economic weakness and persistent inflation.

Fed Policy Dilemma:

Powell emphasized the need to assess tariff impacts before deciding on interest rate cuts, provoking Trump's criticism and political risks of 'replacing the Fed Chair'; the market worries about the independence of the central bank.

Weak employment data (continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to a four-year high) strengthens expectations for at least a 50 basis point rate cut this year.

III. Market Technicals and Immediate Reactions

Gold:

Intraday breakdown below $3300 to $3288 (a four-week low), with the technical breakdown on the 200-day moving average and ascending channel on the 4-hour chart.

Key support sees $3245; if breached, it may fall sharply to $3200; a rebound requires stabilizing above $3325 to reverse the downtrend.

Dollar Index:

After touching a three-and-a-half-year low, it slightly rebounded to 97.4, but the medium-term structure remains bearish. If PCE does not meet expectations, it may trigger further declines in the dollar.

Non-Dollar Currencies: Euro/USD needs to break through strong resistance at 1.1740 to open up upward space; GBP/USD needs to stabilize above 1.38 or test 1.40.

Summary:

Tonight's PCE data is a **key verification point** for the Fed's policy path, particularly focusing on whether core inflation continues to show a 'slight stalemate' characteristic. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it might strengthen the logic for rate cuts and support medium-term gold gains (although the technicals may be under pressure in the short term); if it significantly exceeds expectations, it may temporarily boost the dollar but is unlikely to change its structural weakness. Market volatility may surge, and it is recommended to strictly adhere to risk control; after the data is released, pay attention to the dollar at the 97 level and the breakthrough direction for gold at 3245-3325.