Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 106,400-108,200 recently, and the secondary market in the crypto space is currently sluggish due to multiple negative factors resonating.
BTC
Bitcoin has not broken through the short-term supply line and has not created a new high, but instead has formed lower highs and lows, suggesting it may enter a C-wave decline. However, a strong rebound occurred around $106,500, with a small volume on the pullback, indicating buying pressure is dominant, and the downside potential is limited, with higher upward probability.
The daily line is currently at a critical resistance level. Historically (December 18, January 20, May 22), it has retraced at this point, and it took eight months to break through last time. The next week is crucial for a market shift.
Bitcoin is focusing on the volume and price performance in the range of $108,000-$112,000. If it breaks $108,000, it will rush to a new high; otherwise, it may drop to $100,000.
ETH
Ethereum broke through the downward trend line yesterday, entering a consolidation range. There are signs of a head-and-shoulders bottom at a smaller scale. If it stabilizes at $2,510 (the lower edge of the ascending channel), the head-and-shoulders bottom will be confirmed, or it may reach new highs.
Currently, the direction is unclear, with a resistance level of 2,480 during the day. It is advisable to take profits before hitting resistance. After three consecutive days of increases, Thursday and Friday showed fluctuations with opportunities for both long and short positions, but the short side is not strong, so focus on low long positions. The ideal buy point for a pullback is $2,300; if it falls below $2,200, the upward trend may end.
SOL
SOL is rebounding with the overall market but remains in a descending channel, lacking independent market potential and needs to continue following the overall market. Watch for resistance at 146-148; only a breakthrough would signal a potential reversal.
July opportunity: If the SOL spot ETF is approved, we need to capture long signals at the 4-hour level.
Before the ETH spot ETF is approved, SOL is also at a daily descending trend line; if it breaks through the trend line, consider entering.
Polymarket predicts a 47% chance of SOL ETF approval by the end of July. If staking is included, JTO is also worth attention.
Altcoin
Recently launched new coins SAHARA, NEWT, HOME, H... have all reached their highest prices shortly after launch. BANANA31 combined spot and futures trading has been pushed up for several days, then suddenly crashed down! This kind of malicious behavior has happened repeatedly, and everyone knows who's behind it. Unfortunately, Binance ignores such behavior, and more project parties will choose this way in the future!
There's also TUT; if it falls, it should be the same. If it rises too much without buyers, it turns into selling pressure and short positions. In such a sentiment, the market makers can't pull the market up and can only wait for the overall market to take off and lift everyone's emotions. The altcoins can then dare to rise, but we need to persist. The issues with Iran are ongoing; hopefully, everyone can reach the other shore.
On-chain
Don't underestimate the meme coins with Chinese names like '土狗' (Earth Dog) anymore!
#NeuroFrog is the hope for domestic coins. It’s normal for the first wave to reach 2 million and then return to zero, but very few domestic coins can come back to life for another wave. Although the market cap is not large, it’s enough to be attractive in the current market. Don't have biases against coins promoted by large domestic companies; foreigners can't understand the three-character Chinese names, and this time, we can take pride in it. Let foreigners learn more Chinese; it will save me from having to study foreign languages every night!
