#美国5月核心PCE物价指数 Tonight, the U.S. stock market will welcome the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve - the May core PCE data. The previous value was 2.5%, and the market generally expects it to rise to 2.6%. This news is indeed leaning towards bearish, and may impose short-term pressure on the market:

Core PCE annual rate may rise to 2.6%

Tracking data shows that the May core PCE annual rate is expected to rise from April's 2.5%, consistent with what users stated.

Monthly month-on-month is expected at +0.1%

The month-on-month inflation is still rising moderately, expected at +0.1%, indicating that inflation is still maintaining a "moderate recovery" trend.

Market reaction: Bearish for the dollar, short-term volatility intensifies

Although the rise in core PCE creates a drag on the interest rate cut rhythm, the current market has priced in the expectation of "delayed rate cuts", so the dollar may also weaken in the short term.

Impact on the Federal Reserve: May delay the rate cut rhythm

Although policymakers like Waller and Bowman do not rule out a rate cut in July, Powell clearly stated that interest rate decisions will still depend on data. If inflation rises, the rate cut window may be delayed until September or even later.

Impact on the stock, bond, and commodity markets

The stock market may face short-term pressure, especially in interest rate-sensitive sectors; gold may continue to fluctuate and weaken, as the market awaits clearer signals for rate cuts.

Investor focus suggestions:

If the data exceeds expectations and the core PCE clearly rises above 2.6%, U.S. Treasury yields may regain upward pressure in the short term, the probability of a dollar rebound increases, and gold may continue to be under pressure.

If the data is in line with expectations or slightly lower, the basis for maintaining the overdue rate cut expectation remains, and assets like stocks and bonds may still have the momentum for the next wave of rebound.

Overall judgment:

A core PCE rise to 2.6% means that inflation is still "hot"; policy execution needs to be cautious, and the rate cut rhythm may be temporarily "paused", which is bearish for short-term asset prices. However, if further data confirms that the cooling path remains, asset valuations may also welcome a new layout window #加密市场回调 .

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