In light of the current fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin stands out as one of the key indicators of market trends, especially with the return of activity to liquidity levels and institutional interest. In this article, we will analyze the technical movement of Bitcoin in the short term, focusing on critical resistance and support levels, and potential scenario forecasts in the coming hours and days.
First: Overview of the current trend
🔴 The Bitcoin chart (time frame: Hour/4 Hours) shows movement within a short-term descending channel that began when the price reached peak levels in mid-May. The price is currently fluctuating in a range between $103,000 and $107,000, with repeated attempts to break the immediate resistance without confirmed success.
🔴 Technical indicators (RSI, MACD) indicate a state of neutral leaning towards decline, as momentum remains weak, awaiting a strong catalyst either to break the downward trend or confirm it.
Second: Important resistance levels
- The $105,000 level is an immediate technical resistance, as it represents the price's intersection with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA20). The price has recently failed to surpass it twice, making it an important psychological and technical barrier.
- The area of $107,000 - $109,300 represents the upper limit of the descending channel and forms a major resistance. A clear breakout above this level with high trading volume may open the door to a new upward wave.
- The area of $110,000 - $112,000 is a historical traditional resistance, where Bitcoin has seen peaks in recent months. Surpassing this level will confirm the start of a new upward trajectory in the medium term.
🎯 Third: Potential scenarios
- Bullish scenario 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀:
If Bitcoin can break the $105,000 level and hold above it, with an increase in momentum indicators (RSI > 55 and positive MACD), this could push the price to test the $107,000 - $109,000 area.
Breaking this area will push the market towards $112,000, and from there towards wider targets if demand continues.
- Bearish scenario 👎👎👎:
If the price fails to break $105,000, it may retest the support at $103,000, with the possibility of a drop extending to $100,000 in case this support is broken.
A continued decline in trading volume with a downward break of the descending channel may lead to a wider corrective wave that could reach $95,000.
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Recommendations
- For short-term traders: Selling near 105k can be considered with a stop-loss at 107k, targeting nearby support levels (103k - 100k).
- For those following buying opportunities: It is advised to wait for a breakout above $107,000 - $109,000 with technical confirmation (strong candles + high trading volume).
🎯 Summary
Bitcoin is still moving in a tight range within a descending channel, awaiting a clear breakout either upwards to confirm a new bullish recovery, or downwards to continue the correction. Resistance levels at 105k and 109k remain crucial in determining the currency's path in the near term. Careful monitoring of the crossover with these levels, along with reading technical indicators, is essential for accurately identifying entry and exit opportunities.
