Long-term Bitcoin holders are taking some of their profits, showing signs of “adjusted expectations.”
BTC's Open Interest Index is soaring along with the increasing Stock-to-Flow ratio signaling volatility and scarcity.
Bitcoin [BTC] is up 1.33% in 24 hours, trading at $107,842 on June 26, escaping the short-term panic. However, deeper indicators show a more cautious picture.
BTC Concerns Ease, But Confidence Hasn't Really Recovered
BTC’s 25 Delta Skew — a measure of trader sentiment — has dropped from over 10% to just 2.96% in a week, indicating that short-term panic has subsided. However, not all is well.
The 3-month and 6-month Skew indices remained negative at -2.6% and -4.3% respectively, reflecting unresolved medium-term uncertainty.
Notably, options trading volume remains tilted towards put contracts, suggesting large institutions remain on the defensive.
Therefore, although the fear of an immediate price drop has decreased, the underlying sentiment shows that investors have not yet fully regained bullish confidence.
Source: X/Glassnode
Are traders fueling the fire with this?
Open Interest on Binance rose above 6% for the third time in two months, marking a significant increase in speculative positions. Each previous surge in May and June was followed by profit-taking and a temporary slowdown.
This suggests a heating up of short-term speculative activity, even though BTC prices remain relatively stable. In other words, leverage is being used more.
Source: CryptoQuant
Is long-term confidence wavering?
The Long-Term Holder Net Position Realized Cap index dropped sharply from over $57 billion to just $3.5 billion, indicating large profit-taking flows.
The decline reflects that long-term holders – often considered the most patient investors in the market – have begun to reduce their positions after significant price increases.
This is not a sign of panic, but a calculated risk reduction strategy, in the absence of major fundamental negative factors.
However, the sudden drop still signals a correction in expectations, possibly related to macro uncertainty or post-halving fatigue.
Source: CryptoQuant
Can BTC hold without overheating?
Trading volumes on exchanges have dropped slightly, according to CryptoQuant’s bubble chart. Although Bitcoin is hovering near its all-time high (ATH), the market has yet to show signs of an emotional explosion.
Most volume bubbles remain neutral or green, indicating a healthy environment, not dominated by fear or excessive greed.
This stability allows Bitcoin room to consolidate its price, rather than swing wildly. The market appears to be taking a breather before entering the next growth phase.
Source: CryptoQuant
Finally, will this put BTC into a new cycle?
Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Ratio Spikes to 387, Marking Multi-Month High The metric measures the number of years it would take to mine all Bitcoins at the current rate.
Although not yet at a historical peak, the sharp spike shows that demand is increasing while supply is becoming scarce, putting upward pressure on prices.
However, the effect of this indicator often has a lag. So while Stock-to-Flow reinforces a strong intrinsic value story, it cannot guarantee short-term momentum without support from price action.
Source: Santiment
While the sense of fear has subsided and the market has avoided overheating, caution from the LTH group and heightened speculative momentum create a complicated picture.
Bitcoin needs to carefully strike a balance — combining steady consolidation with increased leverage — to build the foundation for the next big move.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-bot-so-nha-dau-tu-than-trong/
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