Five Macroeconomic + Three Crypto Events Most Likely to Trigger Volatility in July
The main macro line in July is basically data hard landing + the Trump administration pushing the market to force interest rate cuts
On July 3, June NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) will be released, with the previous two months' data revised down by 95,000, while Powell publicly complains about data distortion. If employment weakens further, expectations for an interest rate cut before the July FOMC will sharply rise; the logic of bad data equating to a good market will reassert dominance.
On July 15, June CPI will be released, with the market betting on core CPI falling below 2.8%. If it does not meet expectations, inflation stickiness will combine with declining GDP to create a stagflation narrative. If it declines as expected + employment weakens, an interest rate cut could happen as early as September.
On July 23–24, the ECB meeting will take place. Currently, the Eurozone's recovery is weak, and with media reports suggesting a 25 bp cut, the dollar index will be forced to retreat, which will benefit global liquidity for BTC.
On July 29–30, the FOMC meeting will occur. The GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters, so many analysts on Twitter believe that before the data completely collapses, the Federal Reserve may take action early, with the possibility of an early interest rate cut. In reality, as long as the stance remains dovish, it essentially equates to preemptively exhausting interest rate cut expectations. If the stance turns hawkish, the market will likely retract quickly.
On July 31, the advanced value of Q2 GDP will be released, with the market currently expecting 0.5–0.8%. A technical recession may be confirmed.
The primary crypto event to watch in July remains the unlocking of the three major altcoins.
On July 2, Ethena $ENA will unlock 0.67% of supply ($25M)
On July 3, $SUI will unlock 1.3% ($136M)
On July 12, $APT will unlock 1.76% of supply ($90M)
