As a practitioner who has experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets, I must first pour cold water: The so-called "three 10x coins lying flat" and "rolling warehouse to get rich" theories are essentially risk traps wrapped in probability illusions. Below, I will dissect the logical flaws from a practical perspective and provide rational advice:

1. "The three 10x coins" mathematical scam
Theoretical model:
1000 yuan × 10 (first 10x) = 10,000
10,000 yuan × 10 (second 10x) = 100,000
100,000 yuan × 10 (third 10x) = 1,000,000

Reality punch:
Survivorship bias of 10x coins: In the 2021 bull market, among over 20,000 coins in the market, only 237 achieved a 10x increase (1.18%), and 90% of 10x coins appeared during the main surge of the bull market (April-May 2021), with a probability of less than 0.1% for 10x coins in a bear market.
Probability calculation of consecutive hits: Assuming the probability of selecting a 10x coin once is 1%, the probability of hitting three times in a row is 0.0001% (equivalent to the probability of getting heads three times in a row when flipping a coin × 100).
Liquidity trap: Small-cap 10x coins generally have a "pump-dump" routine, where a 1000 yuan purchase may be executed, but selling 100,000 yuan faces "insufficient buying depth," resulting in an actual yield reduction of 30%-50%.


2. The fatal misunderstanding of "rolling warehouse to get rich"
Case vulnerability analysis:
"50,000 principal with 10x leverage and 2% stop loss" theoretical model ignores three core risks:
1. Volatility crushing stop losses: The proportion of days with a single-day volatility exceeding 5% in BTC's history is 37%. During the LUNA crash in May 2022, BTC dropped 24% in one day, making a 2% stop loss virtually meaningless in extreme market conditions.
2. Leverage costs erasing profits: The daily interest rate for 10x leverage is about 0.15%, with a holding cost of 1.5% over 10 days. If the market is sideways for a month, interest losses reach 4.5% (equivalent to 45% of the returns from a 10x coin being eaten by interest).
3. Psychological collapse threshold: Three consecutive stop losses lead to a 5.8% reduction in principal, and during the fourth opening, the mindset becomes unbalanced, easily leading to "holding positions without stop loss." Data from 2023 shows that 92% of liquidations occur after traders increase their positions following consecutive stop losses.


3. The correct way to open 1000 yuan
Strategy 1: Eco mining and selling (Risk level ★★)
Choose low Gas chains like BSC/Arbitrum and participate in liquidity mining for newly launched DeFi projects.
Case: When the Meme project PEPE launched on the BSC chain in 2024, participating in LP mining with 1000 yuan could yield tokens worth 3000-5000 yuan within 72 hours, realizing 3-5 times returns by taking profits in time.
Key: Set "24-hour monitoring + 50% profit-taking line," and do not participate in the second round of project pump.

Strategy 2: Arbitrage on compliant platforms (Risk level ★)
Arbitrage using the "new coin opening price difference" on platforms like Binance/OKX.
Operation: If a new coin opens at 1 USDT on exchange A and 1.2 USDT on exchange B, you can buy 1000 coins on exchange A with 1000 yuan and sell them on exchange B for a profit of 200 yuan (net profit of 198 yuan after deducting 0.1% fee).
Note: Only participate in top new coins on mainstream exchanges; the arbitrage time window is usually 5-10 minutes after opening.


4. Lessons from experienced practitioners' blood loss
2018 bear market: A team went all-in on 3 small-cap altcoins using the "three 10x coins" theory, resulting in 2 going to zero, and 1 increasing 3 times but unable to be sold, leaving 12,000 from an original 100,000 principal.
May 2022: A trader used 5x leverage to roll over when BTC was at $40,000, and after the third increase in position faced the LUNA crash, with BTC dropping 24% in one day, triggering a chain liquidation, reducing a principal of 150,000 to zero.
2023 bull market: A retail investor continued to hold PEPE after it increased 10 times, believing that the "next SHIB" would appear, but ultimately PEPE dropped from $0.00012 to $0.00003, losing 75% of a 100,000 profit.


5. Ultimate advice: Give up the fantasy of getting rich and establish a risk control system.
1. Fund allocation: Use 800 yuan from 1000 yuan to buy mainstream coins like BTC/ETH (to hedge against declines), and use 200 yuan to participate in new coins for short-term high returns.
2. Stop loss rule: Any single trade loss exceeding 15% must be stopped out, and if total annual losses exceed 30%, a mandatory one-month stop trading is enforced.
3. Cognitive monetization: Use 100 yuan to subscribe to on-chain data platforms (like Nansen/Glassnode) to learn to analyze the movements of whale addresses, which is more reliable than blindly going all-in.


Every day the pop-up notifications are constant, but the only two types of people who can make me act are:
Either they lose until their account is in the red but still grit their teeth and persevere,
Or they lose to the point of only having their underwear left but still believe in the logic.

Those who want to lay back and earn, asking all sorts of questions, hoping I act as a nanny,
Sorry, this is not a daycare center.
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