The $20 billion options expiration on June 27 for Bitcoin raises the prospect of a significant upward potential in the market towards $110,000.

Despite a 1.72% drop in the last 30 days, the observed recovery in Bitcoin price and high levels of open interest in options indicate that bulls are in a stronger position as expiration approaches.

According to COINOTAG data, $11.2 billion in call options clearly outpace $8.8 billion in put options, indicating a bullish stance in the market.

This $20 billion options expiration supports bullish momentum alongside the dominance of call options and increases the likelihood of Bitcoin price rising to $110,000 under favorable market conditions.

Market Dynamics Support Bitcoin Bulls

As the options expiration on June 27 approaches, Bitcoin investors are closely monitoring open interest data. The $11.2 billion call options indicate a bullish expectation in the market compared to the $8.8 billion put options. Approximately $7.1 billion of the put options are concentrated below $101,000; this suggests that a significant price decline is necessary for bearish bets to turn profitable.

This situation indicates that bulls are ready for a strong recovery as long as they remain above the key support levels. The Bitcoin price staying above the critical $105,000 level further strengthens the bullish scenario. In such a scenario, the resolution of put options and the increase in demand for call options could set the stage for new upward movements.

Federal Reserve Signals and Their Effects on Bitcoin Price

Market sentiment has changed positively with the Federal Reserve shifting to a more moderate stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled early interest rate cuts if inflation remains persistently low. This view was also supported by other Fed officials Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller. These developments contributed to the S&P 500 index rising to a four-month high and increased risk appetite.

Bitcoin bulls interpret this situation as a sign that capital may shift from low-yield government bonds to higher-yield assets like cryptocurrencies. The reasonable income growth expectation for the S&P 500 in 2025 could support the risk appetite and strengthen Bitcoin's upward momentum.

Price Scenarios for Bitcoin Based on Open Interest in Options

The distribution of open interest in options indicates different trends across price ranges:

$100,000 – $101,500: Call and put options are almost equal; market is neutral.

$101,500 – $102,500: Call options slightly dominate, a small bullish signal.

$102,500 – $104,500: Call options are clearly ahead, increasing bullish confidence.

$104,500 – $106,000: Call options trading exceeds $1.41 billion, strong bullish momentum.

$106,000 – $108,000: Call options trading exceeds $2.1 billion, a critical advantage for bulls.

For bears to limit their losses, the Bitcoin price must fall below $101,500 by the June 27 expiration; this requires a decline of about 5% from the current price of $107,300. On the other hand, if prices remain above $106,000, it could increase bullish pressure, triggering a strong upward movement as long as interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs continues.


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