There has been a sharp decline in Bitcoin transfers to Binance. This situation suggests that the short-term selling pressure may decrease along with BTC's strong price performance above $105,000.

This decline in exchange flows contradicts the trends observed in previous bear market periods and indicates that investors are shifting towards a longer-term holding strategy, showing increased confidence in the market.

According to information obtained from COINOTAG sources, Bitcoin regaining its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the increasing spot total volume delta (CVD) indicator indicates a potential bullish signal towards the $120,000 level.

Decreasing Bitcoin flows to Binance and other technical indicators highlight that selling pressure is easing and there might be price movements towards $120,000 in the upcoming period.

Declining Bitcoin Transfers to Binance Signal Decrease in Selling Pressure

The latest data shared by CryptoQuant shows a significant decrease in Bitcoin flows to Binance. As of the end of June 2024, the 30-day moving average (DMA) flow has decreased to 5,147 BTC. This figure is less than half of the flows seen in the previous bear market and well below the 13,200 BTC transfer observed in December 2023 when the BTC price was below $100,000.

This decline indicates that investors are not inclined to bring their Bitcoins to the exchange and sell, which points to a decrease in short-term selling pressure.

Historically, sudden increases in exchange flows have often correlated with market peaks and subsequent corrections. For example, during the FTX crisis at the end of 2022, flows had risen to around 24,000 BTC. Today, despite Bitcoin trading above $105,000, the calm flows suggest that investors are more cautious and trust in sustainable price increases.

Investor Behaviors and Market Dynamics

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. states that Bitcoin’s flow/outflow ratio has remained close to the levels observed at the beginning of the 2024 bull market. This indicates that there is continuous demand for BTC and that investors are not inclined to close their positions quickly. A transition to a structure where buyers gain strength from aggressive selling aligns with long-term value preservation market sentiment.

However, global macroeconomic factors and geopolitical uncertainties are causing volatility to persist. While flow data suggests that the investor base is more stable, analysts are cautious due to the possibility of external shocks weakening the momentum of the bull market. Therefore, closely monitoring exchange flows is crucial for understanding market movements.

Technical Indicators Support the $120,000 Target

Crypto analyst İbrahim Coşar states that Bitcoin regaining the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is technically critical. This EMA is often a significant turning point during bull market rallies. In the past, rapid recoveries of 10-20% in prices have been observed after brief declines below the EMA. Consecutive daily closures above the EMA indicate that this positive trend will continue.

The increasing total volume delta (CVD) indicator, which complements this positive outlook, reveals strong buying pressure in the spot market. CVD measures the net difference between buying and selling volumes, and an upward CVD trend indicates that the market is dominated by buyers. This strengthens the likelihood of a rise towards $120,000.

Recommendations and Strategies for Investors

The combination of declining exchange flows and technical indicators shows that investors remain open to taking positions despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. The decreasing selling pressure on Binance signals a more stable market environment, while sudden external developments require caution in portfolio management.

Market participants are advised to monitor volume-based technical indicators such as the 50-day EMA and CVD to track momentum changes. Additionally, closely monitoring exchange inflow and outflow data can help identify changes in investor psychology early on and adapt strategies in a timely manner.


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