Today, let's talk about the four-hour K-line chart of ETH (Ethereum). You might have seen a slight rebound, with the current price around 2471 USDT (+2.17%), but don't celebrate too early; this position is like a sandwich cookie—it's hard to go up or down!

Above is the MA7 moving average at 2530, and further up there is a 'ceiling-level' pressure—MA30 around 2660; in the short term, it feels like climbing in place, with steep slopes ahead, and the rebound pressure is immense.


How to read the technical chart?

MACD is key.

The current green column is still 'smoking', with a value of -18.48, meaning the bearish firepower hasn't extinguished. You can understand it as: the car has clearly hit the brakes, but the slope is too steep, still sliding. The short-term doesn't smell like a bottom.

Moreover, the trading volume is not cooperating—there are no soaring long orders, nor any panic selling volume; it's as if the market is holding its breath, waiting for someone to make a move.

Here comes the case.

Let's take a look at the on-chain data:

In the past 3 days, an institution aggressively invested 113 million USD (average price 2400 USDT) into more than 47,000 ETH.

Sounds fierce, right? But they bought more than 130,000 ETH in 11 days, with an average price of 2518 USDT, currently at a floating loss of about 11%.

My view is very straightforward: this is both faith and pressure. Institutions dare to buy, but the market hasn't followed; they now feel like they're stepping on nails—unable to move, unable to retreat.

This explains why someone is holding firm around 2470—unwilling to stop-loss, fearing it might trigger a chain reaction.



Grayscale's news is a landmine.


Today, Grayscale withdrew its application for the ETH futures ETF, so in the short term, there’s not much hope for the spot ETF either. Although it’s not a catastrophic disaster, the bears love this kind of 'theme' and can immediately rehash it.



Here's a piece of operational advice.


Only a breakthrough at 2530 has bullish hope; otherwise, it will need to consolidate for a while.
If it breaks 2470, it could drop to 2416; it's advised not to force a bottom pick.

Only when MACD shortens + volume breaks the MA7 line is it a true signal for reversal.

The outbreak of the market often occurs when everyone is afraid to take action.


Tonight in the European/American session, as soon as the volume comes in, ETH is going to change its face! Is it a counterattack? Or a crash? Don't blink, the turning point might be tonight!#上市公司山寨币财库 ##币安Alpha上新

If you're still hesitating about the next steps, hit follow, don't get lost, a more intense analysis is coming up soon.