Whales are quietly accumulating, the bears are retreating — BTC, is a change in the air?

Looking at BTC's on-chain data these past two days, four words keep coming to mind: quietly accumulating.

I can't say the market has fully turned bullish, but some actions are indeed too strange: several long-established cold wallets have suddenly awakened, and a large amount of BTC has flowed out of exchanges into self-custody wallets.

According to Glassnode data, in the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of over 8,000 BTC from exchanges, while at the same time, perpetual contract short positions continue to rise — this is not typical retail behavior, but a classic combination of institutional wash trading and baiting.

From a technical structure perspective, the critical support at 60,500 that I have consistently emphasized has once again been validated, with a strong rebound from below to 68,200, followed by a pullback that formed a standard high-level converging triangle pattern.

The MACD bottom divergence signal is clear, and trading volume is gradually shrinking — this usually indicates that the market is compressing, waiting to choose a direction.

From a technical structure perspective, the support level of 106050, which I have always emphasized, is crucial. This wave has pulled from the bottom up to 108249, and after a pullback and consolidation, has formed a very nice high-level triangle pattern.

The MACD bottom divergence is clear, and volume is gradually shrinking to an extreme; it looks like a situation that is “about to explode.”

My personal judgment is clear: this is not a top, but a re-accumulation after compression.

The price is stabilizing on the first upper support, and the trend has not been broken.

Trading volume and the MACD indicator are forming a rare synchronous convergence.

Market sentiment appears cold on the surface, but in fact, the chips are being quietly transferred.

If you, like me, have had too many dreams of “watching the volume soar while being empty-handed,” then this wave of consolidation must not be ignored.

As long as ETH remains above 108250, we can basically declare the bears defeated, and the target will quickly look towards the 1120 area.

Of course, if U.S. stocks have a wild swing tonight, or if the CPI unexpectedly blows up, then ETH will also struggle to stand alone.

So, my personal strategy is: try going long but set good risk control; the stop-loss is not high, but the potential upside is very tempting.