As the Coinbase premium reflects the interest of U.S. investors, individual Bitcoin inflows on Binance have reached a two-year high. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has risen to its second highest level seen in 2025, reflecting the strong buying appetite of U.S. investors.
On the other hand, individual investors' BTC investments on Binance have also reached a two-year high.
The $105,000 rise in Bitcoin prices occurred as a result of the liquidation of short positions rather than new long positions.
Coinbase Premium and Institutional Buying Pressure
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index reached its second highest value on Monday, indicating that the BTC price on Coinbase is at a premium compared to Binance. The index remained generally positive throughout June, reflecting the persistent buying pressure from U.S. investors. This coincides with the increasing spot ETF inflows during the same period. A study found a correlation coefficient of 0.27 between ETF inflows and price increases, supporting market optimism.
Individual Investor Inflows on Binance at a Peak
According to CryptoQuant data, individual investors' BTC investments on Binance reached their highest level in the last two years, coinciding with the drop in Bitcoin prices. Especially, exchange inflows occurring in the 0-1 BTC range are confirmed by the Spent Output Value Bands (SOVB).
Since Binance holds a more dominant position in individual investor trading volume compared to Coinbase, user behaviors here can influence market trends. On-chain analyst Maartunn evaluated this situation as follows:
"BTC deposited on Binance is generally for trading purposes rather than passive accumulation. This indicates that individual investors might play a leading role against market movements this time."
Contradictory Signals and Market Confusion
The Coinbase premium indicates that institutional investors are making strong purchases through ETFs, easing price drops; high Binance inflows suggest that individual investors may take profits or panic sell, which could create downward pressure on prices. This situation indicates that investors should act cautiously. While the premium presents potential buying opportunities, corrections could deepen if individual sales continue.
Short Position Liquidation in Bitcoin and Price Movements
After forming a bottom around $98,300 on Sunday, Bitcoin rose to $105,000 on Monday. However, this move came with a 10% drop in open positions; in other words, the rise was essentially due to the closure of short positions.
On June 23, approximately $130 million in short positions were liquidated, forcing investors to buy Bitcoin. The price spike occurred in parallel with these liquidations. The total funding rate rose along with a low increase in open positions, creating an environment where long positions paid short positions. This indicates that the market is overly leveraged and shows signs of fatigue.
Future Expectations and Possible Scenarios
For Bitcoin to sustain its rise, there needs to be a permanent increase in buying volume and open positions need to rise again to support new long positions. A retest of the $108,500 resistance is possible and this level could signal a strong rally.
However, if funding rates continue to rise without open position support, bearish signals in the market may increase. In such a scenario, a pullback to $102,000 and decreasing trading volume could herald a deeper correction. Especially if market sentiment turns negative again, the current short position liquidation rally may result in a pullback instead of turning into a bull run.
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