The quarterly expiration of Bitcoin options is approaching, with a large-scale Bitcoin futures and options quarterly expiration on June 27, expected to trigger market volatility. Current data shows that bulls have an advantage in the nearly $20 billion in options set to expire:
Open interest comparison: The open interest for call options (buy) is $11.2 billion, significantly higher than the $8.8 billion for put options (sell).
Key pressure point: It is noteworthy that among the $8.8 billion in put options, $7.1 billion of the strike price is concentrated at $101,000 or lower.
This indicates a short squeeze: If shorts want to reduce losses, they must push the Bitcoin price below $101,500 before June 27 (a drop of about 5% from the current price of around $107,300).
Bull target: Conversely, if bulls can hold the $106,000 level, it will solidify their market dominance and lay the groundwork for potential increases in July, especially considering the continued inflow of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Geopolitical risks remain: Although the market has reacted mildly to recent Middle Eastern situations (such as Israeli airstrikes), concerns over escalating tensions between NATO and Russia are rising. Increased Western defense budgets and Trump's upcoming attendance at the NATO summit suggest that the next source of geopolitical shock may shift.
Current market status: Bitcoin is currently benefiting from a risk-on sentiment. However, beneath the surface optimism, the market is experiencing a fierce battle between extreme volatility and steadfast conviction, threats of war, and ongoing buying pressure.
