Last week's Federal Reserve meeting still has expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of a rate cut in July is only 81.4%, which is 4% lower than last week. Why? Internal opinions are not unified!
Old Powell is still the same, playing Tai Chi, saying he needs to look at the data. But he also hinted that if Trump's tariff policy is indeed implemented in July, it would be more prudent to look at the inflation data in August and then decide whether to cut rates in September. The issue of the year-end market starting again is not a big deal.