【Fundamentals】
1. Powell releases clues for interest rate cuts, fiscal policy becomes a driver of inflation.
At the hearing on June 25, Powell clarified that US fiscal stimulus exacerbates inflation risks, suggesting that future trade agreements, if reached, could trigger interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has incorporated trade policy into its economic outlook, currently maintaining a cautious tone in its monetary policy, with the market's expectations for rate cuts heating up.
2. Hong Kong brokerages accelerate their layout in the cryptocurrency market, with Chinese institutions first obtaining full licenses.
Guotai Junan International was the first to complete the upgrade of Securities License No. 1, becoming the first Chinese brokerage in Hong Kong to provide full virtual asset services. As of now, over 40 institutions have completed license upgrades, with leading brokerages like Huatai International preparing to follow, marking a structural change in the competitive landscape of Hong Kong's cryptocurrency market.
3. EU regulations trigger capital siphoning, BTC consolidates its leading position.
The EU's MiCA legislation strictly regulates Asset-Referenced Tokens (ART), with funds continuously flowing out of Ethereum and other altcoins. The total locked value in DeFi protocols has shrunk from 120 billion USD to 85 billion USD. Funds flowing in have pushed BTC to break through 1.08 million USD, forming strong pressure in the 1.07-1.08 million USD range, while altcoins are experiencing widespread declines and increasing differentiation.
【Technical Analysis】
BTC: Strong pressure at 1.08 million, bulls and bears are in a standoff, short positions are advisable in the short term.
Key levels: 1.085-1.09 million USD has become a strong short-term resistance, with the 4-hour line continuously showing upper shadows, indicating significant bearish pressure.
Trading suggestion: Consider placing short positions around 1.085 million USD, with a stop loss at 1.092 million USD, targeting support at 1.065-1.06 million USD. In a volatile range, focus on selling high and buying low!
ETH: After breaking through 2,480 USD, it needs to confirm a stable standing signal.
Key levels: After breaking through 2,480 USD with increased volume in the morning, it peaked at 2,519 USD before retreating, with 2,480-2,500 USD becoming a short-term inflection point for bulls and bears.
Trading suggestion: Consider shorting near 2,530-2,560 USD, with key support at 2,440-2,400 USD below. If it falls below 2,380 USD, it may drop to the 2,200-2,300 USD range.
Altcoins: Facing key technical nodes, focus on reducing positions and waiting in cash!
Currently, market funds are concentrating on BTC, while altcoins lack incremental funding support, with many currencies showing clear signs of breaking down technically. It is recommended to reduce positions and observe from the sidelines, waiting for clear signals of fund inflow before making further investments.
Risk warning: Cryptocurrency volatility is increasing; the above analysis is only a logical deduction. Operations must strictly set stop losses and avoid blindly following trends.
