BTC: False breakout hits 110,000 to lure in buyers, then a drop?

This rebound is objectively beyond expectations. I took profits on my long position at 101,622, and then due to a temporary ceasefire, an unexpectedly strong rebound began. My initial expectation was that the trendline resistance near 106,000 would be about it, but the resistance around 106,000 has now also been broken, and it seems quite strong. So how will it go? Here’s my latest viewpoint:

1. From the estimated liquidation perspective: going up to 110,000 could liquidate 900 million, while dropping to 100,000 could liquidate 2 billion. Currently, this trend shows that we are very close to reaching 110,000.

2. From the chip structure perspective: there is still resistance at 110,000, with support around 104,500, and further down, 100,000.

A couple of days ago, I mentioned that the upward push here is actually being driven, and now the consensus for upward expectations is insufficient. First, there has been no interest rate cut, and second, the ceasefire may only be temporary. The market needs clear incremental capital and a definitive expectation of an interest rate cut. The news yesterday about Guojun obtaining a license stirred the market momentarily. As the first state-owned enterprise to obtain a cryptocurrency license, it is indeed significant. The market anticipates that more domestic incremental capital will enter the cryptocurrency market through this 'compliant' channel. Perhaps this is what gave the market some stimulus, but all of this is short-term and superficial; real money is the key.

The above are just some of my expectations, and regarding my actual trading, whether it's an upward push or a downward drop, there are clear trading strategies corresponding to the operations. For upward pushes, I continue to short altcoins. I started shorting altcoins at 101,622, and I made profits even when shorting up to 108,000, while many people lost money blindly shorting altcoins. This job requires professionals, haha. If the market drops, then there's no need to say more; of course, it would be a big profit.

Chat at 清水的小天地.