The upcoming game revolves around tariffs (the course of action after the expiration of exemptions), inflation (whether it is affected by tariffs), and interest rate cuts (July? September?)

After the expiration of exemptions (early July), will tariffs be added at a "default" higher rate, or will they continue at 10% as per "TACO"? This is the first point of contention. Currently, some countries have reached bilateral agreements with the U.S., but not all; what will happen after the exemptions end? There are two weeks left, so we should pay attention to whether Trump will express new views. The market seems to assume that Trump will go with TACO, meaning that even after expiration, he won't mention it and will continue with the 10% tariff. However, this poses a potential risk.

Inflation: the CPI data for June will begin to reflect the impact of tariffs. Therefore, the focus here is whether the June inflation data will rise as Powell predicts. If the CPI in June increases, and even further in July, this will affect the default script for the interest rate cut in September. Conversely, if June's inflation successfully remains low, and July's inflation also stays low, the certainty of an interest rate cut will greatly increase.

Lastly, the possibility of an early interest rate cut. I still believe the probability of a rate cut in July is too low (there's no reason from the data to cut rates in July). Speculating about a July rate cut might be an excuse to boost the market, but it's unlikely to happen and will disappoint aggressive bulls. I think if the inflation data in June and July is ideal, a rate cut in September is a sure thing; but if inflation rises again in June and July due to tariffs, then even the certainty of a September rate cut is not so high.