BTC faked a breakdown and then rebounded, the mid-track is key! Will it continue to surge or pull back to 102k?
Driven by a bunch of positive news, BTC first experienced a fake breakdown, then directly rebounded back to the mid-track position. At the same time, the spot premium has increased significantly, while the funding rate has clearly decreased, indicating that buying pressure is mainly coming from the spot side, while some futures bulls have chosen to close their positions.
The next strategy is clear. If BTC can hold steady at the mid-track, it is highly likely to continue rising towards the upper range; if it cannot hold, the price may need to test the 102k level again.
So how to judge in advance? Mainly look at two data points. First is the funding rate; if it remains negative, the probability of breaking through the mid-track will increase; second is the spot premium index. If it does not drop significantly during the mid-track consolidation phase, the probability of a mid-track breakout will also increase. If neither of these conditions is met, the price is likely to be blocked at the mid-track and return to test 102k again. Everyone needs to keep a close watch!
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