Summarizing Powell's speech last night:

1. Powell has no intention of lowering interest rates in July, so the market generally believes that rate cuts will begin in September, with only a 23% chance of a rate cut in July and a 70% chance in September. A rate cut in September means the market will start to respond around August! Historical data tells us that the last rate cut by the Federal Reserve was on December 18, 2024, but the start of this round of rate cuts will be on September 18, 2025. Therefore, the best time to position is July-August, as prices in July-August will be much lower than in September.

2. Powell emphasized that inflation expectations have increased, although the core PCE is still at 2.6%, and overall at 2.3%. Overall, it is declining, but still far above the target!

3. The labor market is relatively robust, with a low unemployment rate and sufficient employment, which gives the U.S. confidence in its statements!

4. Powell stated that he is not influenced by anyone like Trump! He said he can withstand pressure; however, he can only withstand short-term pressure. Long-term pressure will definitely be unmanageable, so a rate cut in September is inevitable! #BTC