The conflict of war seems to have ended. Although both sides were still throwing bombs at each other after the ceasefire was announced yesterday, it did not affect the prices at all. In summary, this round of Bitcoin surged past 110,000 before the Israel-Iran conflict, and it has not returned to the pre-war price yet. Recently, ETF funds have started to flood back into the market, indicating that this round of conflict is just a small episode, and institutions' long-term layouts are still ongoing.
Powell rejected the possibility of a rate cut in July during his Congressional testimony last night, but the market generally believes that the door for rate cuts has opened. Currently, CME predicts a high probability of a rate cut in September at 87%. This afternoon, Morgan Stanley forecasted that the Federal Reserve will cut rates seven times next year, ultimately bringing rates down to around 2.5-2.75%. The loose rates in the next two years will be very beneficial for the cryptocurrency market to enter a bull market.
To summarize Old Powell's speech, the continuous postponement of interest rate cuts is mainly due to the uncertainty brought by the tariffs imposed by Trump. The tariff negotiations will yield results in two weeks, and there will also be responses regarding a potential interest rate cut in July, which is likely still not going to happen. However, there is strong confidence for a rate cut in September, so in the next couple of months, we can have some expectations for trend movements, prepare to defend, and be ready to take profits when prices rise.
The current market environment still sees the stocks of listed companies holding cryptocurrencies rising. Although Circle's stock price finally fell a bit last night, the market's focus and money have long shifted from directly buying coins to buying these related stocks.
Last night, Coinbase's stock surged wildly because it announced it was helping 200 banks and financial institutions worldwide with cryptocurrency-related businesses. This news sent COIN up by 13%, hitting a new high. There were also several examples last night: the listed company Eyenovia, which holds Hype coins, saw its stock price skyrocket by 65% overnight, and Nano Labs, which announced it holds BNB coins, saw its stock price jump from 10 dollars to over 30 dollars. Although it later fell back a bit after the US stock market opened, it still ended up increasing by about 40%.
So far, more than 20 publicly listed companies have announced their holdings of Bitcoin, 3 hold Ethereum, 4 hold SOL, 2 hold Hype, and 1 company each holds TRX, FET, and BNB. If you look at the stock charts of these companies, you will find that their trading volumes and prices have been surging recently, which was not the case before.
In the future, there may also be ETF funds specifically investing in altcoins, which is similar to buying cryptocurrency stocks, allowing outsiders to buy these coins through the stock market. Currently, outside money is concentrating on buying these crypto stocks or future altcoin ETFs in the stock market, and this money has not directly entered the cryptocurrency exchanges.
This explains why most of the altcoins traded directly on exchanges haven't seen much increase during this bull market. The money coming in from the stock market is not concerned with, or even aware of, the many other altcoins on the exchanges, so they certainly won’t buy them.
Conversely, the coins that have been active in the exchanges recently are mostly related to these stocks, such as SEI, which has been moving recently because it is held by Circle. Additionally, Circle clearly holds APT, SUI, ZRO, and OP, which are also worth noting to see if there are any signs of movement later.
Lastly, let me say a few words about the current market outlook:
I believe Bitcoin is very likely to stay above 100,000, because if it were really going to break down, it would have done so long ago. It’s just that every time it approaches the 100,000 mark, it quickly rebounds. The conflict between Israel and Iran has reached a pause, but the cryptocurrency market is gradually diluting the negative impact. As long as there are no significant negative factors in the future, the price is likely to fluctuate in the range of 100,000 to 110,000.
(If something really unexpected happens and it breaks 100,000, there’s nothing we can do.)
Although Bitcoin has been above the 100,000 mark for more than a month, it is currently very difficult to break new highs because there are no actual positive factors to drive the price higher.
In terms of operations, I still recommend focusing on several leading sectors: Pepe, Aave, Sui, and Uni. Although the war factor has caused these leaders to drop significantly, their recovery has been relatively quick. As long as BTC remains strong, it’s worth positioning. Although they are indeed not as stable as BTC and lack institutional support, the facts have also proven that they will not go to zero and will always rebound.
Regarding the significant volatility in the market, what everyone refers to as a bull market, I think there are signs of localized trends that could start by September at the earliest. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, which means that the market could likely start to move in the latter half of August. Therefore, the current market decline is a setup for preparing for the rate cut in September.
Brothers, hurry to gather in the chat room: