How Will Tariff Games and Interest Rate Cut Expectations Affect the Market?
I. Tariff Negotiations Enter a Critical Stage
Deadline Approaching: Only two weeks remain until the negotiation deadline, but major participants (including the EU and traditional US allies) are displaying unusually tough negotiating stances. Market Impact Expectations: The negotiation deadlock may trigger panic in the market next month. The safe-haven attributes of the cryptocurrency market (especially Bitcoin) are strengthening, potentially weakening the impact of tariff shocks.
II. Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts Continue to Heat Up
Political Pressure Intensifies:
The Trump administration continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately. Key departments such as the Department of Commerce and the Treasury have publicly expressed support for easing policies. Congress has requested Powell to provide a special explanation regarding the monetary policy stance.
Discrepancies Within the Federal Reserve:
Officials like Governor Bowman have signaled a potential rate cut in July. Current market pricing indicates a 25% probability of a rate cut in July. Powell's upcoming Congressional hearing is a key observation window.
III. Market Outlook and Operational Strategy
Monitoring Key Indicators:
Closely monitor the upcoming CPI/PCE data. If inflation remains moderate, the probability of rate cuts from July to September will significantly increase.
Market Impact Expectations:
The implementation of rate cuts will initiate a new round of liquidity-driven trends. The passage of stablecoin legislation may trigger a major upward trend. Before clear signals emerge, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound trading strategy and take appropriate profits on rallies.
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