On the morning of June 24, a breaking news announcement triggered a market reversal—Trump announced that Iran and Israel had reached a "complete and comprehensive" ceasefire agreement, leading to a violent rebound of mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and SOL, while short-sellers faced severe losses.
This financial storm ignited by war did not escalate into a global crisis; instead, it became an opportunity akin to a "golden pit brought by a black swan." We will analyze the underlying logic based on market trends and recommend several potential projects that are worth focusing on at present.
1. Market Review: Ceasefire Takes Effect, BTC and ETH Violently Rebound
From the U.S. military airstrikes on the Fordow nuclear facility and the explosion of market risk-averse sentiment to the announcement of the ceasefire agreement early this morning, the market staged a V-shaped reversal from "panic selling" to "confidence restoration" in just 48 hours:
Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $106,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%
Ethereum (ETH) rose above $2,400 per coin, with an intraday increase of 7.7%
Mainstream altcoins like Solana and Avalanche experienced a collective increase of 5%-10%
CoinGlass data shows that the total liquidation across the network reached $482 million in 24 hours, with short positions accounting for over 70%
The significant reduction in short positions caused the market to rebound sharply, reflecting a cooling of concerns regarding "full-scale war," a decline in risk-averse sentiment, and a renewed influx of capital into risk assets, especially in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Market Logic: Sudden Ceasefire + Stabilization of Liquidity Expectations
The rebound in this wave of market activity is driven by three major logical factors:
1. Short-term relief from geopolitical risks: Trump's "sudden announcement" caught the market off guard, but the clear terms of the ceasefire agreement (synchronized ceasefire in phases, with a maximum observation period of 12 days) allowed risk-averse funds to quickly return—gold and oil experienced a spike followed by a retreat, while U.S. stock futures turned positive.
2. Cryptocurrency assets remain the first choice for funds seeking "high elasticity": Against the backdrop of a general expectation of continued global easing, once extreme risks are eliminated, the cryptocurrency market, due to its high Beta characteristics, becomes the first battleground for bullish funds to replenish.
3. ETF buying stabilizes and supports the market: The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that spot ETFs continue to maintain a stable weekly net inflow, with the $94,000-$95,000 range forming a solid support zone. This means that institutional allocation to BTC is still ongoing, and even short-term disturbances are unlikely to shake its long-term upward structure.
