The Bitcoin UTXO model and market sentiment have improved, but the prospects for a rally should still be viewed with caution.
Due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin's price recently dipped below the critical psychological level of $100,000. However, with news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, market sentiment quickly improved, and Bitcoin's price rebounded strongly, currently breaking above the $106,000 mark. This shift indicates that sellers have mostly exited, and buyers are beginning to take control at lower levels.
The UTXO block profit and loss count ratio model data from CryptoQuant also supports the argument for this recovery. The model shows that when Bitcoin reached its peak of $112,000 earlier this month, this indicator soared to 34,000 points, indicating that a large number of holders seized the opportunity to sell for profit. However, the indicator then plummeted to 216 points, showing that profit-selling has significantly decreased, while the proportion of loss trades is increasing.
Although this rebound has rekindled bullish hopes in the market, Bitcoin still firmly remains within the consolidation range that has dominated price movements since May. Additionally, ongoing global tensions (especially in the Middle East) and a tightening macroeconomic environment continue to inject volatility into the market, making the short-term direction unclear.
The daily chart for Bitcoin shows that the price has strongly rebounded from a low of $98,200 to the $106,000 area, reclaiming the $102,800 level that has repeatedly acted as a key support and resistance point since March. Meanwhile, as the BTC price has successfully broken above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), it indicates that the market will continue to strengthen in the short term.
Before this rebound, Bitcoin tested the 100-day moving average (around $96,200), a level that has historically been a reliable area of interest for buyers during pullback phases.
Although the market has shown a bullish reaction, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation pattern; if the price fails to break above the key resistance level of $109,300, the range fluctuation structure will remain unchanged.
Therefore, to achieve a trend reversal and regain upward momentum, Bitcoin needs to decisively break above and stabilize above $109,300.
But before that, macro uncertainty and geopolitical events may continue to affect market sentiment, leading to sustained price volatility.
Finally, how do you think the Bitcoin market will develop next? Leave your thoughts in the comments section!
