ETH market analysis and operational strategy
Current technical formation
Price range: $2450-2460 narrow fluctuation +0.4% compared to the previous day
Key position:
Resistance zone: $2480-2493 4-hour Bollinger upper band + daily EMA100 convergence point
Support zone: $2430-2343 trading volume dense area + EMA20 dynamic support
Momentum indicators:
Trading volume shrank by 33%, KDJ50 flat - Change alert signal
RSI 64.4 close to overbought zone, MACD histogram flat - Indicates bullish accumulation structure
In-depth interpretation of news
SEC policy impact: Gary Gensler stated 'crypto innovation is irreversible' and recognized DeFi value, promoting a 1.5% short-term rise in ETH.
Positive side: Reduce expectations for ETH spot ETF delay, weekly increase in whale addresses accounts for 18.6% of the circulating supply.
Risk side: Refer to historical trends from November 2024, policy benefits increased by 32% and then retraced within 7 days.
Liquidity risk: Newly added addresses on-chain increased by 25% weekly, but Gas fees dropped to 3.53 Gwei - Incremental funds have not entered the core ecosystem, the current rise is mainly driven by derivatives leverage.
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Practical strategy framework
Direction trigger conditions target stop-loss core basis: Breakout long > 2480 and trading volume > 150 million 2550-2580 < 2450 daily EMA golden cross + Bollinger Bands expansion break short < 2430 continuously 2 candles 2385-2336 > 2513 volume divergence triggers leverage liquidation left-side layout 2450 light position try long 2490-2520 < 2420 whale cost zone defense verification
Risk control principle: Single risk exposure ≤ 3%, long position at 2450 suggested to match with short hedge contracts below 2430, profit-loss ratio 2:1
Macro event warning
22:00 Federal Reserve meeting minutes: If a rate cut signal is released, ETH may link to the NASDAQ and rise to 2580
Geopolitical risk: Escalation of the Iran conflict may trigger ±15% daily volatility in ETH, refer to the case in March 2024
Operational logic system
Time window strategy:
Asian session: $2450-2480 interval grid trading volatility ≈ 1.8%
European opening: Monitor UK CPI impact on the US dollar index
Two hours before the US session: Liquidate to avoid Federal Reserve event risk
Multidimensional verification signals:
Bullish: Coinbase premium rate > 0.3% + Tether issuance increase
Bearish: Deribit large put options proportion suddenly increased by 20%
Key risk reminder: There is a $1.9 billion trapped position at the weekly level of $2500; effective breakthrough requires daily trading volume ≥ $2.2 billion, currently at $1.8 billion.
Core investment philosophy
Market opportunities often hide in low-volume fluctuations; the 2450 zone combines high risk and high return attributes - Strict risk control is the survival bottom line
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