The market briefly surged on positive news, but traders remained generally calm—BTC has already touched resistance levels, and the risk of a correction remains, so caution is still needed.
On the morning of June 24, Trump announced a complete ceasefire with Iran, instantly warming market sentiment. BTC quickly rebounded from the low of dropping below 100K to reach 106,000 USD, with a 24-hour increase of over 8%. Altcoins also took the opportunity to recover, but the question is: is this rise fleeting or the starting point of a new trend?
Macroeconomic perspective: Geopolitical risks have eased, but the market remains cautious.
@Phyrex_Ni: Changes in oil price expectations are key. The probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 30%, oil prices have fallen to 68 USD, and market panic over war has diminished. On-chain data for BTC shows no large-scale panic selling; 93K-98K remains strong support, but there is significant accumulation of buy orders above 105K, posing notable correction risks.
@Cato_CryptoM: The market sees the Iran-Iraq conflict as a 'show', but if Iran suddenly causes trouble, all optimistic assumptions will be overturned. BTC currently lacks upward momentum, unless there is indeed a rate cut in July.
Technical perspective: Resistance is clear, and the probability of a correction is high.
@biupa: 106K is a strong resistance; it is advised to take profits on bottom fishing. The moving average system has weakened, and if BTC falls below 98K, the next support is 95K-97K. Altcoins are in worse shape; if BTC drops to 97K, altcoins may plunge to the 186B-200B market cap range.
@CryptosLaowai: 98K is just a rebound after a liquidity trap, and 103K-106K presents a chance to short. Funding rates have turned positive, and indicators are overbought, so a correction could come at any moment.
@market_beggar: The short-term support of 98K has been tested; if it dips again, 93.5K-98K is the last defense line for the bulls.
Data perspective: Buying power is weak; spot trading is dominant.
@Murphychen888: Comparing the data from June 5 and June 22, the new demand during this correction is far less than before, and the rebound strength may be weaker than expected.
@CryptoPainter_X: Spot buying is strong, but futures bulls are retreating. If the mid-line cannot hold, BTC may test 102K; if it breaks 107K strongly, beware of the 'spike and reverse' trap.
@DL_W99: SOL is weak and oscillating, with 140-147 becoming a new resistance area, and 123-138 as support, making it difficult to have an independent trend in the short term.
Trader's advice
Short-term: There is clear resistance around 106K; bulls can take partial profits while bears wait for correction signals.
Medium-term: If it tests 95K-98K and stabilizes, it may be the starting point for a new round of trends; if there is a violent surge that clears out shorts, beware of 'spikes and drops'.
Altcoin: BTC is unstable, altcoins struggle to gain traction, exercise caution when bottom-fishing weak coins like SOL.
Summary: Market sentiment is like a rollercoaster, but smart money is quietly positioning itself. Expectations of interest rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions are potential catalysts, but the technical outlook remains bearish. Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment—bull markets often see sharp drops, and bear markets can have dramatic rises; be patient for the next certain opportunity.
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