In June 2025, Trump lashed out on social media again—this time targeting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: 'Europe has cut rates 10 times, and we haven't done it once! The economy is so good, inflation is long gone, why aren't we cutting rates? Wasting $800 billion every year!'

Since taking office in January, Trump has publicly urged Powell to cut rates at least 17 times, calling him 'Mr. Too Late' and 'an idiot', even threatening to fire him. But the Federal Reserve remains unmoved. Why is Trump so anxious while Powell is steady as a rock? What does this mean for the crypto community?

Trump's Calculation: Lowering interest rates = printing money = bull market?

  1. Tariff Aftermath: Trump's tariff policy has increased import costs, and businesses are complaining nonstop. Lowering interest rates can 'hedge' inflation pressure, making economic data look better.

  2. Debt Bomb: The U.S. government has to pay back $776 billion just in interest every year! A 2% rate cut could save $600 billion—this is a calculation Trump knows all too well.

  3. Stock Market Performance: In an election year, U.S. stocks must rally, lowering interest rates = injecting money = retail frenzy, Trump is well aware of this.

But Powell coolly responded: 'The unemployment rate is 4.5%, wages are up 4%, the economy is not collapsing, why lower rates?'

Crypto Revelation: Who will the Federal Reserve's bullets be left for?

  • Short Term (June-September): The market is betting on a possible rate cut in September, but don't be too optimistic. Powell only has two bullets (expected to cut rates twice), and he will definitely wait until the economy really can't hold up before shooting.

  • Mid-Term Strategy:

    • If rates are cut: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other mainstream coins will surge first, but watch out for the 'sell on news' trap (prices plummet as good news is realized).

    • If rates are not cut: Funds will go wild trading 'anti-inflation assets'—Bitcoin, gold, and commodity-related tokens (like PAXG).

  • Black Swan Warning: If Trump really fires Powell, the market will be thrown into chaos instantly, USDT may decouple, be ready to buy the dip in U or switch to stablecoins for hedging.

The big shots are arguing fiercely

  • Rate Cut Faction: 'If we don't cut rates, the housing market will explode!' (Harris Financial)

  • Stubborn Faction: 'Cutting rates now is cowardly!' (Bridgewater's Dalio)

  • Sarcastic Faction: 'Powell is afraid of his own shadow...' (U.S. Secretary of Commerce)

Conclusion: The Federal Reserve is waiting for a signal—either employment collapses or the stock market crashes. Before that, crypto friends remember:

  1. Keep enough USDT, don't go all in.

  2. Watch the September FOMC meeting, that day could be a turning point.

  3. Take Trump's rhetoric as a joke, but if he really goes ahead and replaces Powell—immediately shut down, have a drink to calm your nerves, then decide whether to buy the dip or run away.

(After all, in the power game between central banks and presidents, cryptocurrencies are the wildest gambling table.)

Focus on Yuanbao@crypto 元寶 for more information

#鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 #美国国债