June 25, 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: A Fragile Rebound Under Policy Games

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is caught in a tug-of-war of volatility and uncertainty under the interplay of multiple macro variables. Although Trump announced a 'complete ceasefire agreement', the conflict between Iran and the U.S. continues unabated, and market concerns about geopolitical risks have not truly dissipated. Coupled with Powell's dovish testimony, the soon-to-expire tariff suspension window, and the SEC's delay in reviewing spot ETFs, overall risk sentiment remains weak.

Regarding Bitcoin, although the daily chart has shown consecutive bullish closes and briefly broke the downward trend line, the technical rebound lacks sustained momentum. The 4-hour chart shows that the 1065–1075 USD range is a strong resistance zone, with frequent upper shadows on the candles indicating that bearish positions are still actively being established. If it falls below 1055 USD, it will accelerate the drop towards the 1045 USD area, necessitating caution regarding the sustainability of the short-term rebound.

Ethereum's trend is also weak, with two consecutive bullish daily closes but struggling to surpass the strong resistance at 2480 USD, and capital has not effectively increased. The 4-hour structure shows signs of a rounded top, and if it loses the 2380 USD level again, it will further open up the space for a pullback. Overall, ETH remains constrained by tight liquidity and macroeconomic pressures.

As for altcoins, although there has been a short-term rebound due to the easing of risk aversion, the upcoming expiration of the tariff suspension on July 9 poses a significant potential downside risk affecting market confidence. If Trump does not extend the tariff exemption, the altcoin sector may face a rapid plunge risk.