Three Key Points from Powell's Speech:

1. Tariff Policy Delays Rate Cut Decision

The Federal Reserve has put rate cuts on the agenda, but the recently implemented tariff policy has brought economic uncertainty. Powell clearly stated that without the sudden emergence of these trade barriers, rate cuts might have already been in place. The current cautious stance on policy directly stems from the need to assess the impact of tariffs.

2. Divergent Attitude on Rate Cut Timeline

Regarding the recent (July) interest rate adjustment window, the Federal Reserve has shown a noticeably cautious stance. This restraint mainly arises from the need for more economic data to support decisions. However, it is noteworthy that Powell exhibits a more open attitude towards the possibility of rate cuts in the future (September), suggesting a potential turning point in policy by the end of the third quarter.

3. Economic Fundamentals Support Current Policy

The speech particularly emphasized the strong resilience shown by the U.S. economy: the job market continues to maintain a stable situation, and the unemployment rate remains at historically low levels. This healthy labor market condition allows the Federal Reserve not to stimulate employment through rate cuts, providing fundamental support for maintaining the current interest rate policy. The current economic environment enables the central bank to maintain policy stability and observe the actual effects of tariff policies on inflation and economic growth.