International News
1. Middle East situation - ① Trump believes that both Israel and Iran have violated the ceasefire agreement, but states that neither will face consequences for doing so. Trump also backtracked, stating he does not wish for a regime change in Iran. ② The rise in oil prices since Israel attacked Iran on June 13 has been completely wiped out. ③ US media cited preliminary intelligence assessments reporting that its strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear facilities, which the White House denied. ④ After a call between US and Israeli leaders, Israel ceased further military strikes against Iran. ⑤ Iranian President: Iran is ready for dialogue at the negotiating table.
2. Federal Reserve - ① Powell: Current policy is in a favorable position, and we can observe and wait before considering interest rate adjustments. Legislators privately say I am doing the right thing. The vast majority of officials believe that a rate cut later this year is appropriate. It is too early to say that the dollar is depreciating, and such statements are premature. ② Bostic: There is currently no need for a rate cut, expecting a 25 basis point cut later this year. ③ Hamack: There is no urgent reason to cut rates at this time. Interest rate policies may remain unchanged for a considerable period. There is no need to overreact to capital flowing out of the dollar. ④ Kashkari: In the face of tariff uncertainties, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode. ⑤ Williams: Tariffs and uncertainties will lead to a slowdown in economic growth and rising inflation this year. ⑥ Collins: A moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is necessary. Barr: Monetary policy is in a favorable position, and the Federal Reserve will observe how the economy develops.
3. Trump calls on Powell again: Interest rates should be lowered by at least 2 to 3 percentage points.
4. Trump demands that the Beautiful Deal be sent to his desk as soon as possible and states that an agreement will be reached this week.
5. Senate Republican Leader Thune plans to vote on Trump's Beautiful Deal in the Senate on Friday.
6. British media: The EU is ready to take more tariff countermeasures to pressure the US.
7. US Treasury Secretary Basant: We will take action on state and local taxes (SALT) in the next 48 hours.
Domestic News
1. The commemoration conference for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance includes a military review on the morning of September 3, and will arrange for some new-type combat forces, such as unmanned intelligent forces, to participate in the review.
2. The 12th plenary meeting of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference is held.
3. Central Bank: Conducted 300 billion MLF operations on June 25, with a term of 1 year.
4. Wang Yi spoke on the phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, who said that a ceasefire has just been reached between Israel and Iran, but the situation is not stable.
5. The central bank and six departments jointly issued (Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption).
6. Guangdong issued (Guangdong Province's Work Plan to Promote Continuous Economic Improvement and Strengthen Domestic Circulation).
7. The Ministry of Commerce answers reporters' questions regarding the EU's restrictions on Chinese companies and products participating in its public procurement of medical devices.
8. Ministry of Commerce: Organizing the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season activities in thousands of counties and towns.
9. Central Bank: Will study and formulate a new stage of financial technology development plan, and issue policy documents to deepen the application of financial technology to promote the digital and intelligent transformation of finance.
Risk Warning
☆ 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of opinions from the June monetary policy meeting.
☆ 08:15, 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Federal Reserve President George will speak on the economic outlook.
☆ 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee regarding the semiannual monetary policy report.
☆ 22:30, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20, Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory.
