1. Market structure review:
ETH has rebounded strongly from the low of 2188 on June 22, reaching a maximum of 2459 within three days, accumulating a rebound of over 12%. The current 4-hour candlestick structure continues to elevate the highs and lows, maintaining a fluctuating upward rhythm, indicating that bulls still have the initiative in the short term.
2. Technical analysis:
✅ Moving average system:
EMA7 and EMA30 are diverging upwards, indicating a noticeably strong short-term trend.
However, the price is approaching EMA120 (2481), and there is certain pressure above.
If the volume breaks through EMA120, it is expected to challenge the key resistance area of 2550.
✅ MACD indicator:
After the MACD golden cross on the 4-hour level, the volume has continued to increase, indicating a healthy upward trend in the short term.
The daily MACD has not yet turned positive, and the bullish trend has not been fully established; the rebound resembles a repair after an oversold condition.
✅ RSI strength index:
RSI on the 4-hour scale is at 61.72, still not overbought, with certain upward potential.
However, if the price encounters resistance at 2500 and falls back, a short-term adjustment should be guarded against.
3. Trading volume and VRVP:
The trading volume has gradually slowed down, indicating a decrease in the willingness to chase prices.
VRVP shows that the current price is located in a zone of concentrated transactions, with 2500-2550 being the main resistance area above.
5. Personal opinion:
The current ETH trend leans more towards a 'rebound repair in a downward trend', rather than an obvious main upward phase. In terms of operation, it is advisable to enter and exit quickly, avoid chasing prices at high levels, manage positions reasonably, and pay attention to the reaction in key resistance areas.