If Bitcoin continues to tumble this season, it will mark its fourth consecutive summer in the red, while TradFi aims to extend its winning streak to three.Bitcoin is facing a potential fourth straight summer loss if it ends the 2025 stretch in the red, while the S&P 500 will log its third straight seasonal rally if its winning streak continues.
From 2020 to 2024, the S&P 500 logged eight positive July and August performances, while Bitcoin
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had six. So, while their summer trends aren’t entirely decoupled, the divergence has become clear in June. Since 2020, Bitcoin has posted just one positive June, while the S&P 500 has seen only two negative ones over the same span.
A closer look at the past few years shows that Bitcoin’s summer slumps have less to do with seasonal patterns and more to do with crypto-native shocks and economic trends, such as China’s mining ban, halving cycles and post-COVID inflation.
Here’s how the past five summers played out and what may lie ahead. 
