#BTC

Here’s the current Bitcoin market snapshot:

🐻 Why sentiment has turned bearish

1. Surge in bearish derivative positions

Traders have placed over $1.35 billion in bearish derivative bets—mainly puts and futures—expecting BTC to drop from the $95K–$100K strike zone this week . That volume shows strong conviction among informed traders.

2. Geopolitical instability impacting risk appetite

A recent US strike on Iranian nuclear sites triggered a ~1.4% BTC dip to just under $99K, as global risk aversion pushed sell-offs in crypto and equities . Even a short-lived ceasefire didn’t fully restore confidence .

3. Technical indicators wavering

• BTC has been rejected around $105K–$106K multiple times—this “bear cluster” signals diminishing momentum .

• Price remains below all major EMAs (20/50/100/200)—a classic bearish signal .

• Some analysts warn of an approaching “death cross” (50‑day MA crossing below 200‑day MA), which in past cycles heralded declines near 13–16% .

4. Extremely negative retail sentiment

Retail sentiment has sunk to its lowest since April’s tariff-induced scare. Santiment notes bearish comment ratios near 1:1—a contrarian signal that might indicate a short-term bottom, but it still reflects panic-level sentiment .

5. Options expiry tightening the range

With a major options expiry due soon (June 27), BTC has been trapped in a $101K–$105K range, reflecting a tug‑of‑war between bulls and bears .

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Bearish case analysis 🔍

• Price breakdown scenario: A bleed below $101K could spur a rapid move toward $95K–$100K, the region weighted by bearish derivatives. If further selling continues, the next technical support zone lies near $90K, with a potential drop to $80K in a full-blown correction .

• **Catalysts for further downside**:

• Intensifying geopolitical risks raising risk-off sentiment

• US Federal Reserve signaling persistent tightening

• A confirmed death cross turning investors even more risk-averse