One, long and short strangulation: The capital war behind daily $68.5 million selling pressure.
Whales are cashing out madly.
Early investors are cashing out at an average daily rate of $68.5 million with 300%+ profits. On-chain data shows their selling scale has reached levels before the 2017 crash, creating strong short-term pressure.
Market structure risks: 70% of XRP's market value is supported by new retail investors from 2024-2025, with holding costs concentrated at $1.30-$1.60. A breakdown may trigger a panic-style sell-off.
Institutions are bottom-fishing against the trend.
ETF channel accelerating: Canada's 3iQ XRP ETF has been launched with zero fees; the SEC has opened a review period for Franklin's ETF, with Polymarket predicting a 93% probability of approval within the year.
Traditional finance enters: Germany's DZ Bank uses Ripple technology to manage digital assets; Dubai launches a $16 billion real estate tokenization project; China's Web3 payment provider Webus bets on XRP for cross-border scenarios.
Two, technical password: $2 life-and-death line and bull market flag code.Key level offense and defense:
$2.00: After the weekend Middle East conflict caused XRP to plummet to $1.91, bulls firmly defended this support level, forming a V-shaped rebound, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $2.2 billion.
$2.14: Current strong resistance level, breaking through targets $2.37, then challenges the $3.0 mark.
Indicator signal divergence:
Bearish alert: Weekly descending triangle is brewing. If it breaks $1.90, it will trigger a 35% drop to $1.35-$1.60410.
Bullish hints: RSI rises from 29 to 52, daily trading volume of derivatives approaches $4 billion, and signs of institutional accumulation are evident.
Three, June's nuclear-level catalysts: ETF, Federal Reserve, and litigation conclusions.
June 17 dual judgment day.
SEC ruling on Franklin ETF: If approved, it could replicate the billion-dollar liquidity injection of the Bitcoin ETF.
Federal Reserve interest rate decision: Expectations of rate cuts are rising. If a 25 basis point cut is implemented, risk assets may face a capital siphoning effect.
The endgame of Ripple vs SEC is approaching.
Lawyer Bill Morgan points out that Judge Torres may expedite the ruling after June 12. If Ripple wins, it will clear the biggest regulatory cloud.
Four, survival guide: Retail hedging strategies and institutional trump cards.
Key actions for player types: Short-term traders break through $2.14 to go long, firmly hold $1.90 stop loss; if it drops below $1.60, exit unconditionally. Long-term holders dollar-cost average at $1.35-$1.60 'golden pit' to reserve positions and capture ETF approval events. Institutions observe and monitor RLUSD stablecoin expansion, tracking companies like VivoPower to build positions.
Whale fleeing is real, but after the 2017 crash, XRP still increased by 400 times;
$1.30 is the mining disaster-level stop loss line, but institutional bottom-fishing is evident.
Currently, XRP is a waltz on the edge of a knife—those who step on the rhythm win it all, while missteps lead to zero.
Choice at this moment:
Following whale trends? Beware of becoming the buyer of 70% high-cost positions.
Following institutions? Betting on the triple nuclear explosion of ETF + rate cuts + victory.
The financial market shows no mercy, only cognitive realization—hunters and lambs, separated by a thin line.
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