The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a surge in the crypto market. Bitcoin peaked at around $106,000, and altcoins generally rebounded. Yesterday, Sponge reminded in an article (Trump's 'mouth cannon' triggered $1 billion liquidation!! Did Bitcoin drop to lure a rebound? Will Ethereum drop further? Shorts made a lot of money! Altcoins got wiped out! Should we pick up bloody chips?) that: 'After a sharp drop, one can make a super oversold rebound. I like to refer to: wif, pengu, virtual, fartcoin as veteran actors; every rebound is a spearhead.' Today they all skyrocketed, and fans who followed along probably made a lot of money.
Okay, let's dive into the main text. An analysis as fierce as a tiger, with ups and downs all depending on President Trump! The Middle East situation has temporarily eased, and Bitcoin has rebounded to stabilize at $10.5. Mainstream coins are rebounding, and altcoins are following suit! Just days ago, the entire network saw liquidations of $1.2 billion, and today the familiar market is back; only significant fluctuations in the crypto market provide opportunities to make money! How can there be wealth creation effects when it’s just sideways trading? Next, we'll see if there are any other surprises.
BTC
Bitcoin's deep V-shaped rebound surged 6000 points, mainly due to three reasons:
First, the 8-hour funding rate has turned negative in the short term; more people are bearish, and there has been accumulation for several days.
Secondly, Trump is leading the mediation for a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict; the news guidance is unavoidable.
Thirdly, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in July has increased; if implemented, it could lead to two cuts of 25 basis points.
Currently, BTC is driven by news. This round of increase mainly relies on contracts without spot support; the extent of the increase could be followed by a correction. As long as you buy at the bottom during bearish times (when the 1-hour line isn't moving down), and sell during bullish times. High volatility brings high returns, but the difficulty of operation also increases. Few people caught this round of gains, and once it rises, they’re all confused: why did it rise so much? The price has now reached a high point, and it's time to look for shorting opportunities!
BTC focus: support levels at 100300, 97669, 93246, pressure level at 109500, current key levels at 107507, 106132, 104757, 103055-103366. The reason for these levels is that they all have oscillation demand and are support and resistance levels from the past half month!
ETH
The next move for Ethereum might be: 2380 (clear long positions) → 2431 (fill CME gap) → 2480 (break pressure level) → significant increase. This morning, there was a strange phenomenon where BTC quickly filled the CME gap, but ETH's gap hasn’t been filled yet. Why?
Because 2400 is not only a pressure level on the 15-minute, 4-hour, and even monthly charts, but also the starting point for the 2022 and the previous 4000-point market. The ETH leaders haven’t exerted their strength yet; it’s normal that the gap hasn’t been filled. The rise this morning was mainly due to liquidations of short positions. Currently, the scale of long positions at 2380 is not large, and the main force may not take it, but there are 1.7 billion in short positions at 2450, which is very attractive.
Altcoins
If mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, AAVE, and SOL don’t rise, other altcoins are likely not worth paying attention to. The crypto market is still immature, and most coin movements follow Bitcoin. Altcoins occasionally have independent movements, usually resulting in selling at high positions; if not careful, one ends up as the bag holder.
On-chain
The on-chain memecoin market turns upside down every day; yesterday it was quiet, but today it's bustling. Last night, several low-market-cap altcoins in the group surged several times, and the quick transaction volume on SOL is back. Trading coins feels like being a monkey in a circus, busy and spinning around!
$baobao
What a 'baby'; today it also skyrocketed, and the internal group followed suit, making 5 times profit!
$IKON
This is a Web3 e-commerce platform, similar to 'Amazon', supporting digital currency shopping. Its competitiveness is weaker than U card, but its potential lies in user volume and product richness. The token has experienced significant ups and downs, and the washout is over; foreign users dominate, with little participation from locals. Currently, it is around 30 for positioning, waiting for market value to return to the million level. (Join the group for real-time operations.)
NEWT
Just now, the Newton protocol NEWT surged over 50% on Upbit, so I specifically checked it. It's based on AI-driven strategies, providing a secure protocol during automated trading. It looks promising. The contract will be launched on June 19, waiting to see the trend after the spot market opens tonight.
These three coins are about to unlock a large amount; boldly shorting is a no-brainer for making money.
In the picture below, these are the coins that are about to unlock large amounts. Among them, BLAST, AXC, and KMNO will see significant unlocks this week, releasing about 20% to even 30% of the circulating supply.
Starting in July, SOLV, TRUMP, and our old friend ZRO will be unlocked, equivalent to 20% of the current circulating supply, which will create significant selling pressure, and the coin price is sure to plummet.
I still hold onto Trump’s long-term short position; it has halved from 16U. These institutions ran away as early as the end of May. If you want to short altcoins, it’s best to choose those with large unlocks.
We are also opening orders daily in the short term, with institutional data in hand; today there are also orders being opened every day, so if you haven't been paying attention to Sponge, you should start now. Making a 20% profit is quite easy; just get involved.
Recently, everyone has been discussing the possibility of interest rate cuts in July. Although two Federal Reserve officials hinted at the earliest cut in July, data from the Fed suggests a 79.3% probability of maintaining rates in July, so the first rate cut in the second half of this year is expected to occur in September.
