Core impact mechanism

  1. Panic selling

    • Conflict escalation - Risk aversion - Sell-off of high-risk assets

    • On June 13, Israeli airstrikes hit Iran, BTC fell 1.5% in 15 minutes, with $1.16 billion liquidated in 24 hours.

  2. Ceasefire rebound

    • Easing situation - Risk appetite recovery - Funds flowing back to the crypto market

    • After the ceasefire agreement on June 24, BTC rose 4.5% in 24 hours to $106,000, with a net inflow of $1.3 billion into ETFs over five days.

The dual attribute game of Bitcoin

Scenario-dominant attribute price reaction case evidence conflict outbreak early high-risk asset plunge on June 13 synchronized drop with Nasdaq ceasefire/unupgraded anti-inflation tools rapid rebound on June 24 breaking through $106,000 full-scale war liquidity squeeze deep correction if oil prices break $120, BTC may probe $90,000

Key contradiction: Short-term risk aversion function weaker than gold with a correlation of 0.5, but long-term anti-inflation narrative strengthened by geopolitical turmoil.

Floating amplifier: Three major vulnerabilities

  1. Leverage bubble

    • Pre-conflict open contracts surged by 18%, 25x leverage faces black swan risk of liquidation.

  2. Liquidity trap

    • $50 million sell orders can trigger a flash crash, buying depth is 37% lower than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.

  3. Dollar suppression

    • Dollar index breaks 107, with a negative correlation of -0.7 with BTC.

Focus on Big D, a professional team will help you accurately target swing points, keep up the rhythm and let assets take off!

Investor response strategy

Phase operation key anchor points conflict outbreak reduce leverage to below 5 times closely watch $102,000 support confirm ceasefire buy on dips BTC+ETH ETF weekly net inflow > $300 million full escalation multi-gold short altcoins hedge if crude oil prices break $100

Ultimate conclusion

Geopolitical conflict = A stress test for Bitcoin volatility

Short-term view: Panic leverage liquidation

Mid-term view: Ceasefire recovery strength

Long-term view: Diminished fiat currency credit

Monitor three signals:
Hormuz Strait navigation - Fed rate cut probability in September - BTC ETF fund flow direction
$BTC

Focus on Big D, a professional team will help you accurately target swing points, keep up the rhythm and let assets take off!

#加密市场反弹