#Strategy增持比特币 Analysis

  1. Position size

    • Total holdings: 582,000 BTC, worth over $61 billion, accounting for 2.4% of total Bitcoin supply.

    • Latest increase: In March, spent $584 million to buy 6,911 BTC, with unrealized gains exceeding $11.2 billion at the current price of $101,000.

  2. Operation model

    • Revolving financing: Issue high-yield preferred shares to raise funds - buy coins - stock price rises - refinancing, forming a closed loop.

    • Leverage risk: Stock price is at a 75% premium to net asset value, if BTC falls below $60,000 it could trigger a chain liquidation.

Market impact

Price boost: After the increase in March, BTC surged 7% within 24 hours, breaking $88,000.

Institutional resonance: Brazilian company Méliuz and others imitate increased holdings, Bitcoin ETF synchronously saw $1.3 billion inflow in a week.

Stability improvement: Institutional holdings account for 41%, BTC volatility hits historic low.

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Controversies and risks

  1. Regulatory game

    • SEC doubts the classification of crypto assets, may restrict fundraising capabilities.

    • U.S. Department of Justice plans to sell 70,000 seized BTC worth $6.5 billion, short-term impact on the market.

  2. Commercial model questioning

    • Core software business annual revenue is only 450 million, profits rely on BTC fluctuations, criticized for 'gambling with shareholder funds.'

Future key variables

STRK fundraising plan: Target $21 billion, holdings may account for 5% of circulation, becoming 'market price setters.'

S&P 500 inclusion: If BTC breaks $96,337, the strategy may enter mainstream indices.

Price prediction:

Short term: Support level at $93,000, breaking below or retracing to $65,000; optimistic at $120,000 - $150,000.

Long term: Institutional consensus $250,000 - $500,000.

$BTC
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