Ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the Federal Reserve signals interest rate cuts, Bitcoin rebounds violently

Global markets are panicking due to the potential escalation of the US-Iran conflict. On June 23, former US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached an agreement for a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire," causing an immediate market reversal. Previously plummeting oil futures due to war panic quickly erased their risk premium; Bitcoin, as a representative of risk assets, staged a V-shaped recovery, strongly breaking through the $106,000 mark from the depths of panic selling.

This market frenzy triggered by "peace expectations" has led many traders to believe that the worst moments are over, with market sentiment shifting from panic to optimism, filled with hope for the next breakthrough in new highs.

After experiencing the rollercoaster of Bitcoin and global markets from euphoria to terror, the market finds itself at a crossroads, with its direction depending on the interplay of geopolitical factors, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment, potentially leading to three scenarios in the future.

Scenario one: A "W" shaped pattern of double bottoming, representing the most pessimistic situation. If an explosion in Tehran triggers substantial retaliation from Iran and the conflict escalates, the optimistic narrative will collapse, oil prices will surge, inflation fears will reignite, and hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be dashed, leading Bitcoin prices to enter a second round of decline, testing previous critical support levels.

Scenario two: A "fragile balance" of high-level consolidation, which is currently occurring. The market acknowledges the fragility of the ceasefire agreement but believes that the intensity of the conflict is manageable. Under this expectation, Bitcoin prices may fluctuate above $100,000, with the market entering a "listening for news" mode, sensitive to Middle Eastern developments, with prices oscillating between hope and fear.

Scenario three: A slowly rising "new normal," which is the most optimistic but has the lowest probability. If the Israeli strike is the "final blow," and Iran shows restraint or responds symbolically, leading to regional calm, it will solidify market expectations for "Federal Reserve interest rate cuts." Bitcoin may detach from geopolitical influences and return to a slow bull trend dominated by macro liquidity and internal supply and demand, gradually climbing.

Currently, the market has expectations for a technical correction, and will consider shorting if the position is right.