In-depth analysis of BTC's surge today

I. News-driven factors: The Middle East ceasefire agreement is in place.

  1. Core events:

    • At 06:34 Beijing time today, Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, significantly reducing geopolitical risks.

    • Market concerns over the Middle East situation have eased, leading to a collective rebound in global risk assets, a retreat in gold and oil, and an increase in US stock futures.

  2. Impact on cryptocurrencies:

    • Risk aversion eases: Previously, tensions in the Middle East had driven up safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, resulting in some capital flowing out of the crypto market. The ceasefire agreement triggered a return of funds to high-risk assets, diminishing BTC's 'digital gold' attribute, but expectations for liquidity easing have strengthened.

    • Macroeconomic sentiment shifts: The ceasefire agreement reduces the risk of uncontrolled inflation, stabilizes oil supply, raises expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and benefits high Beta assets like BTC.

II. Key technical signals: Bottom divergence + key support rebound

  1. Daily structure:

    • Closing price 104,762.6 USD, located in the recent fluctuation range mid-track 98,000-110,000.

    • Long lower shadow formation: The daily K-line quickly rebounded after touching a low of 104,759, showing strong support in the 104,700 area, a critical dividing line between bulls and bears.

  2. MACD bottom divergence confirmation:

    • DIF-212.4 crosses above DEA-713.6, forming a 'golden cross' signal, and the MACD red bar turns green, indicating a typical bottom divergence structure, suggesting the decline is exhausting.

  3. Volume and key level breakout:

    • Early trading volume broke through 105,400, confirming the short-term bullish trend.

    • If it stabilizes above 106,000, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level will further open up upward space.

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Future market trend predictions and operational strategies

Short-term:

Bullish target:

First resistance level: 106,800

Key resistance: 108,500-110,000 upper boundary of the fluctuation range

Bearish risks:

If it breaks below the 104,700 support, it may test 102,000.

Mid-term:

Bullish logic:

After the MACD daily golden cross, if the DIF returns above the zero axis, it will confirm the mid-term rebound trend.

Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may drive institutional funds to position themselves in BTC ahead of time.

Risk warning:

Sustainability of volume: If the rebound lacks volume, be cautious of false breakouts.

Correlation with US stocks: If the Nasdaq pulls back, BTC may face pressure.

Today's surge is a result of the 'easing of geopolitical risks + technical bottom divergence resonance', leaning bullish in the short term but requires volume confirmation. A breakout above 110,000 will initiate a new trend; otherwise, the fluctuation will continue. Leave your thoughts in the comments.

$BTC
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