【Interest Rate Cut Expectations Resurrected! July's Foot Hasn't Dropped, Market Sentiment Is Already Restless】
With July just a step away, the market is once again buzzing about whether the Federal Reserve will take action—currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 20.7%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current high-interest rates is as high as 79.3%. This "test of endurance" regarding interest rates is tugging at the nerves of global assets!
Senior officials from the Beautiful Country hint: If trade disruptions dissipate, we will continue to cut rates.
At 2 AM on June 24, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee publicly stated:
"If the trade policy impact disappears, we should continue to cut rates."
This undoubtedly injected a shot of adrenaline into the bullish camp, also laying the groundwork for volatility in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Why is the crypto market highly sensitive?
High interest rates mean high opportunity costs, which naturally suppresses funds from flowing into crypto assets. Once a rate cut signal appears, risk appetite for funds will significantly increase, and digital assets, especially popular coins like Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL, will be the first to feel the "gentle breeze of easing."
Planning ahead is better than fishing by the shore.
Although a rate cut in July is still not a high-probability event, the market often reacts in advance—opportunities are not waited for, but seized. Smart money has quietly repositioned itself amid changes in macro expectations. Are you a spectator at this moment, or are you part of the game?
Policy hasn't landed yet, but sentiment is already ahead. Grasping policy windfalls is key to gaining an advantage in changing situations.
