Technical Analysis
Support & Resistance: $BTC has been trading between roughly $98,115 (the recent 24h low) and $103,274 (24h high), which now mark key support and resistance. The price sharply bounced off the ~$98,100 level on Sunday, finding support near the lower Bollinger Band on the 4h chart. Resistance lies in the $102.7k–105k zone (around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Failure to break above ~$103–105k could expose $98k again as the next test.
Short-Term Trend (Moving Averages): Short-term momentum appears mixed. On 1h and 4h charts, Bitcoin’s price is below major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), forming a bearish cluster. This indicates sellers still control the immediate trend despite the bounce. However, the recent string of higher lows (from 98k up to ~103k) shows the sellers are waning. If 1h/4h MA5 and MA10 (not directly visible) were overlaid, they would likely be sloping up after the latest jump.
Volume and Breakout Signs: Trading volume surged on the green candles that drove Bitcoin back up toward $103k, suggesting strong buying interest at the support zone. In the 1h chart screenshot, a very tall green volume bar matches the price rebound. This hints at a short-term breakout attempt above $103k. However, volume was lighter on the previous climb from 98k, so it’s unclear if momentum is strong enough to pierce the upper zone. A sustained breakout would require follow‑through buying and convincingly higher volume beyond $103–105k.
Order Book & Momentum: The order-book snapshot shows mixed signals: the 1h view indicated about 54% buy-side orders vs 46% sell-side, implying slight bullish tilt. In contrast, the 4h snapshot showed only ~15% buy orders vs 85% sell orders, reflecting heavier sellers at longer horizons. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) remain bearish on the charts. For example, on daily/4h timeframes BTC’s RSI hovers in the 40s and MACD is still negative. This suggests that, technically, upside momentum is still limited until key resistance is cleared.
Geopolitical Context
Middle East Escalation: In mid-June 2025, tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran spiked. Notably, on June 21 the U.S. reportedly struck Iranian nuclear sites. This generated only a very brief crypto sell-off – Bitcoin dipped about 1.3% intraday and then recovered by the next day’s close. In other words, while headlines were alarming, Bitcoin held above six figures through the worst of the flare-up. Nonetheless, analysts caution Bitcoin did move with risk assets during the crisis: “crypto markets declined sharply amid rising geopolitical tensions” and BTC fell below $100k on Sunday’s news. In short, Bitcoin has so far shown resilience – better than many had feared – but its action still reflects a wider risk-off mood.
Russia–Ukraine War: The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to roil markets. In early June, Ukrainian drone strikes on deep Russian targets prompted a spike in energy and metal prices. For example, one report noted Brent crude jumped ~4.4% to ~$63.44, natural gas surged, and even gold (a classic safe haven) rose about 0.8% on the heightened tensions. In this environment investors have been rotating into traditional “shelter” assets. The Rio Times observed that as BTC dipped, “investors moved capital into the U.S. dollar and gold,” underscoring how crypto behaved like a risk asset under crisis conditions.
Broader Risk Landscape: Multiple conflicts have emerged this year, from the Middle East flare-up to renewed India-Pakistan skirmishes and Yemen clashes. Analysts note these events have changed market dynamics: “No longer are markets split between ‘risky bets’ and ‘safe havens’… Gold and, to some extent, Bitcoin are standing out as key ad hoc shelters”. In practice this means each new flashpoint is causing portfolio shifts. In the last week, many traders sought stability in USD, Treasuries or gold first, before revisiting crypto. Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects this duality: it has absorbed war-news shocks more smoothly than equities (holding near $100k levels), yet the immediate reactions still looked very much like a sell-off of risk.
Combined Insight and Outlook
Bitcoin’s charts and the current news backdrop send mixed signals. Technically, the rebound from ~$98k toward $103k is a bullish short-term recovery: buyers defended the 24h low and briefly pushed prices back up. However, BTC remains capped under the key $103–105k resistance zone, and momentum indicators (RSI/MACD) have yet to turn convincingly positive. The next few days will show if this bounce can build on the recent ETF- fueled uptrend or if it stalls.
Meanwhile, macro risks are still skewed to the downside. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and market sentiment is cautious. As one analyst put it, Bitcoin’s sell-off “renewed questions about its legitimacy as a ‘safe-haven’”. In the short term, further shock events (e.g. renewed strikes, oil chokepoint fears) could trigger another dip. Technically, failure to clear $103–105k likely opens a retest of $98k support – perhaps even the 200-day MA near ~$95.6k – if risk aversion persists.
Potential scenarios:
Bullish: If conflict news stabilizes and bitcoin sentiment steadies, BTC could consolidate above $100k. Strong ETF inflows or easing Fed news might then drive a fresh rally. (Notably, mid-June’s peak near $108.9k coincided with record ETF demand.) Clearing $105k would remove key resistance and could pave the way back toward mid-June highs.
Bearish: If geopolitical risk remains high or worsens, traders may liquidate crypto again. In that case, $103k–105k may hold as a cap and Bitcoin could slip back to $98k or below. A sustained breakdown would put longer-term levels (like the 200-day MA ~95.6k) in play. Until Bitcoin convincingly reclaims resistance and momentum turns positive, the technical outlook favors caution.
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent surge off the lows is a positive technical sign, but it is happening against a backdrop of unsettled geopolitics. Traders should watch key chart levels (~$98k support, $103–105k resistance) and the news flow closely. A breakout or breakdown will likely hinge on whether markets see a de-escalation in global conflicts or further risk-off shocks. In the coming days, look for Bitcoin to trade in a relatively tight range, with the bias tilting toward the prevailing news cycle and overall risk sentiment.