🔴 Possible scenarios for the development of events:

1. Comprehensive military escalation (the most dangerous)

Direct intervention by the United States and Israel against Iran.

Possibility of targeting internal Iranian sites and new Iranian responses to US and Gulf bases.

Threatening navigation in the Strait of Hormuz or temporarily closing it.

2. Limited escalation and temporary deterrence (most likely currently)

Exchange of limited strikes with immediate international mediation (Russia, China, Türkiye, United Nations).

Maintaining a level of deterrence without slipping into all-out war.

3. Self-restraint and diplomatic containment

The success of international pressure in containing both parties.

A gradual return to negotiations or focus on nuclear and economic tracks.

📉 The impact of these scenarios on global markets:

✅ Cryptocurrencies:

Scenario 1: Sharp rise in cryptocurrency prices, especially $BTC and $ETH as a safe haven (next to gold).

Scenario 2: Strong volatility with an upward bias, but with liquidity risks and rapid buying and selling waves.

Scenario 3: Slight decline or relative stability, pending clarity on the political vision.

✅ Gold and oil:

Gold and oil prices could rise rapidly immediately, especially if shipping in the Gulf is threatened.

Oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel if operations continue.

✅ US and global markets:

Temporary collapses or massive sell-offs in the event of a comprehensive military escalation.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe will be the first to be affected.

🔍 Conclusion for investors and traders:

Watch geopolitical indicators more than technical ones.

Safe havens (gold – BTC – USDT) are your destination.

Avoid high leverage for now, and be prepared for unexpected scenarios.

Invest carefully and wait for trend confirmation.

But. !!!!! As is common and well known

✅ Under normal circumstances, when gold and oil prices rise due to tensions or inflation, cryptocurrencies are likely to fall, as investors turn to the traditional safe haven of gold and their demand for higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies decreases.

but!

❗In extreme and exceptional geopolitical situations, such as the attack on the Al Udeid base in Qatar, the equation changes radically. Why?

1. Geopolitical turmoil = collapse of confidence in traditional financial systems.

When the world's confidence in both American and Gulf stability is shaken, investors look for alternative assets that cannot be frozen or controlled, such as:

Gold (traditional safe haven).

Bitcoin (a modern digital haven against central banks and financial espionage).

2. Bitcoin is now viewed as “digital gold.”

Many major financial institutions such as BlackRock and MicroStrategy consider $BTC a hedging instrument like gold.

In situations of severe conflict or economic sanctions, confidence in cryptocurrencies is growing as an alternative to besieged banking systems.

3. If the United States does not respond militarily, but a direct Gulf-Iranian escalation occurs:

This scares investors about a collapse in oil and gas supplies (and thus a rise in oil).

They fear destabilizing the banking system in the region (this is where decentralized currencies like $BTC and ETH$ come into play).

It strengthens the trend towards gold, as a classic haven.

🔍 Does America's withdrawal from the confrontation arena have anything to do with it?

It definitely has something to do with it. If:

America withdrew or did not respond after striking Al Udeid base,

The strike was part of an implicit understanding to end the Iranian nuclear file.

The conflict began to be limited to Iran and the Gulf states only.

This could mean that:

The long-term geopolitical risk to energy supplies will rise.

Investor confidence in Western protection of the Gulf states will weaken.

Consequently, capital will flee to gold, oil, and even cryptocurrencies.

📌 Conclusion:

In “major crisis” scenarios, gold, oil, and Bitcoin rise together because everyone is looking for safety.

The difference between gold and Bitcoin is:

🔸 Gold = protection against inflation and conflict.

🔸 BTC = Protection from censorship and banking and monetary collapse.